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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (1989)	7/12/2002 1:23:43 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 89467

Equity Strategy : Prudential adjusts their sector weighting in wake of mkt weakness and raises their Infromation Technology weighting by 7% to 16%; lowers their weightings on Consumer Discretionary (by 1% to 17%), Consumer Staples (by1% to 12%), Energy (by 1% to 5%), Healthcare (by 2% to 11.5%), and Utilities (by 2% to 3%). Like Morgan Stanley's Barton Biggs (see In-Play for details), firm believes now is the time to get more aggressive in equity allocations; notes that stock prices fell yesterday to levels they first hit in June 1997 (when the economy was 28% smaller) and that earnings are improving (expects the vast majority of cos will beat their Q2 forecasts).

To: Sully- who wrote (1989)	7/12/2002 2:09:08 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 89467

Head&Shoulder patterns only have power with 3-4 months/years check this USdollar chart over the last few months stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G more importantly is the rapidly descending 20day MovAvg it is somewhere around 107 now ominously hovering and descending in late June it threatened from above when the 111-112 range was being diddled and fiddled back then I said we had a couple weeks at most before the next stage down hard for the USdollar turned out to be just a few days now again we have some tough chart patterns on the dollar to interpret back in June, it looked more like a "pause pattern" before resumption down turned out to be right now we have better "toehold pattern" for stabilizing but the 20MA is coming down so rapidly, it is scarey with the current range being 105.5 to 108, maybe it isnt wide enough to promote stability the difference (oversold condition) was so great between the current price and the 20MA maybe the very rapid lost gains in mid-week were a signal that the currency market cannot hold here I dont think the dollar is showing much strength here it seems hovering at lows, unable to hold any gains and all gains are at the hands of coordinated CB intervention I say the USdollar has up to two weeks before resumption down one thing I have learned about currency over the years THEY MOVE AND THEY MOVE WITH POWER AND MOMENTUM AND FORCE maybe not move in real large chunks, like stocks but once a trend is in place, it continues for months and months and months until it is done, if not overdone Puplava calls the currency markets "the financial jetstream" makes perfect sense in fact, he calls the rapid USDollar decline the necessary ingredient to "The Perfect Financial Storm" it has begun, and it will resume these past two weeks we saw its awesome destructive force but then again, guys like Voltaire and CNBC and Biggs might think all is well, great buying opp / jim