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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (34248)7/13/2002 12:04:25 AM
From: Dayuhan  Respond to of 281500
 
Colin Powell goes to Hosni Mubarak and tell him that it is very likely that Israel will shell Cairo, but for the sake of the regional alliance and his $2 billion in aid, he must just suck it up and make no response.

If the US was in the process of demolishing Israel's armed forces and removing its government at the time, and if retaliation seemed likely to compromise that effort, I expect Mubarak would do what any thinking person would: put his feet up and say "go to it, boys".



To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (34248)7/13/2002 2:16:27 AM
From: jcky  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
<< jcky, try to picture this scene. Colin Powell goes to Hosni Mubarak and tell him that it is very likely that Israel will shell Cairo, but for the sake of the regional alliance and his $2 billion in aid, he must just suck it up and make no response.

How many milleseconds do you think it would take before Mubarak threw him out of his office and told him to go f--k himself? >>

If Mubarak were plagued by the same myopic vision of retribution as Sharon is, this might be a very plausible response. But if Mubarak were an astute tactician and politician, he would heed our advice. And why? If the United States' objective were to destroy one of Egypt's nemesis in exchange for self-restraint in the line of fire, the benefits of self-containment far outweighs the risks of initiating a wider scope of conflict.

No one is expecting Israel to perform acts of self-abnegation or self-endangerment. But everyone is expecting Israel to act with reason and sensibility if an invasion of Iraq should occur. And butting heads with the United States is plain silly when the same military goal is desired by both parties: the elimination of Saddam.

You mentioned earlier, Nadine, that Israel makes a good ally. Here's your chance to prove it. The last thing the United States needs in this "planned" invasion of Iraq is another liability. If Sharon balks and threatens to act like a loose cannon, you better believe there will be second thoughts by the Bush Administration about an invasion of Iraq.