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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (37909)7/13/2002 8:10:11 PM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 52237
 
Vitas:

The 5-day ARMs on the NYSE by itself is not very accurate. Institutional selling is having a greater effect on volume than issues. It has been that way for some time. I use the components of the ARMs in several different ways for market turns. This has been useful for several years. Currently, July 11 to 16 is a good opportunity for a bottom. If it fails, it indicates further trouble.

Around January 2000, I was one of the few individuals left watching the INDU and TRAN. I remember mentioning that they were the economy and they were ready to drop because the Fed began raising federal funds in June, August, and November of 1999--three times. Even after the INDU peaked in January 2000, Mr. Greenspan nailed in three more spikes during 2000. He must have thought he was fighting Dracula. When he recognized his mistake, he began lowering rates frantically. Nine months after he started dropping rates, the INDU and TRAN bottomed on September 21 and 20, 2001, respectively. The bottoms were at INDU 8235 and TRAN 2033. From there, the INDU and TRAN rallied and have not breached their lows of September 2001. If either the TRAN or INDU reaches a new low, then we have more problems.

Many people continue to view the NASDAQ Composite and NDX as the market and market. I don't.

If the bottoms in the INDU and TRAN both hold, then I expect an ugly and narrow bull market in those two indices only moving into next year. After that, just hold on to your loved ones very tight.

I think it was 1986. I remember timing the program trades. After that, I decided not to play anymore.

My main concern now is Mr. Bush's approval ratings. I think they will begin slipping. If they slip substantially, I would be very concerned. Not because I like the fellow but because I already heard one "general malaise" speech delivered by Mr. Carter.



To: Vitas who wrote (37909)7/27/2002 8:01:45 AM
From: bearshark  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 52237
 
Vitas:

The wake of the killer-whale. I guess you are on vacation
but I went to the NYSE site to obtain some data that shows
what I am seeing from reading the tape--or the online
electronic information of today. Below is the program
trading as a percent of NYSE weekly volume. It is from the
NYSE site and is the data reported by the NYSE's member
firms. I may have made some typos here and there but the
trend is what is important. The percent numbers reflect
the changed market (from 1999 and 2000) and the loss
of the individual as a buffer to some extent. You can also
see the effect of the end of June for each year. This is
why NYSE advancing and declining volume is so important.

Week % of NYSE

2002

7/19 33.4
7/12 33.4
7/5 32.0
6/28 51.0
6/21 44.9
6/14 30.1
6/7 28.4
5/31 39.4
5/24 31.5
5/17 31.6
5/10 30.6
5/3 33.9
3/29 30.5
4/19 28.7
4/12 29.1
4/5 29.5
3/29 30.1
3/22 25.4
3/15 30.5
3/8 25.6
3/1 29.1
2/22 28.1
2/15 26.7
2/8 25.5
2/1 25.5
1/25 25.9
1/18 25.2
1/11 25.6
1/4 31.0

2001

12/28 27.8
12/21 38.1
12/14 28.0
12/7 26.8
11/30 30.1
11/23 24.1
11/16 24.9
11/9 25.7
11/2 26.8
10/26 25.3
10/19 24.0
10/12 22.9
10/5 25.0
9/28 27.4
9/21 23.2
9/14 30.4
9/7 29.1
8/31 31.4
8/24 28.0
8/17 26.2
8/10 27.6
8/3 26.9
7/27 26.3
7/20 27.4
7/13 26.1
7/6 32.4
6/29 34.5
6/22 28.2
6/15 33.4
6/8 24.9
6/1 31.2
5/25 25.3
5/18 28.0
5/11 27.6
5/4 27.3
4/27 27.5
4/20 27.1
4/13 30.6
4/6 31.2
3/30 31.8
3/23 26.7
3/16 31.5
3/9 25.2
3/2 30.9
2/23 27.6
2/16 27.8
2/9 24.3
2/2 25.5
1/26 24.5
1/19 26.8
1/12 25.4
1/5 22.1

2000

12/29 28.5
12/22 23.5
12/15 33.1
12/8 24.6
12/1 25.9
11/24 23.2
11/17 23.3
11/10 20.9
11/3 21.2
10/27 21.9
10/20 19.6
10/13 21.2
10/6 21.4
9/29 24.7
9/22 20.5
9/15 28.7
9/8 18.3
9/1 22.1
8/25 17.9
8/18 18.7
8/11 18.1
8/4 24.8
7/28 20.6
7/21 18.9
7/14 18.7
7/3 23.8
6/30 30.8
6/23 20.6
6/16 31.3
6/9 17.5
6/2 19.6
5/26 21.0
5/19 20.0
5/8 18.6
5/5 20.7
4/28 19.2
4/21 21.3
4/14 19.5
4/7 18.8
3/31 23.9
3/24 18.9
3/17 23.0
3/10 16.3
3/3 19.2
2/25 19.8
2/18 18.1
2/11 15.9
2/4 20.1
1/28 18.2
1/21 21.1
1/14 17.2
1/7 19.1

1999

12/24 15.5
12/17 24.7
12/10 18.8
12/3 20.6
11/26 16.6
11/19 18.2
11/12 14.8
11/5 17.1
10/29 22.9
10/22 17.5
10/15 20.2
10/8 16.0
10/1 20.5
9/24 19.3
9/17 21.9
9/10 16.8
9/3 23.5
8/27 21.7
8/20 19.3
8/13 17.3
8/6 20.2
7/30 19.5
7/23 18.6
7/16 18.3
7/9 18.1
7/2 30.6
6/25 19.6
6/18 24.9
6/11 19.4
6/4 21.6
5/28 23.6
5/21 22.0
5/14 17.3
5/7 17.1
4/30 18.4
4/23 16.5
4/16 16.8
4/9 17.0
4/2 21.3
3/26 17.6
3/19 19.5
3/12 16.8
3/5 19.3
2/26 21.0
2/19 19.8
2/12 19.0
2/5 19.2
1/29 18.8
1/22 16.6
1/15 19.6
1/8 19.6
1/1 19.7


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