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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lone Ranger who wrote (3440)	7/13/2002 1:19:51 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 30712

we need to get the majority of selling out of the way, maybe more asset allocation shifting from equities to fixed investment will help, but prices need to drop low enough so that sustained enthusiastic buying returns. Actually, what has been happening (as I see it) is that money has been leaving certain types of equities for a while. Tech funds have seen outflows all year, right from January. Large Cap Growth has seen the same for much of the year although not as much as tech. At least that is what AMGDATA.com informations seems to suggest. The way the Nasdaq has been behaving the last 2 days seems to hint that we may have a short term bottom at least on the Nasdaq. There is no more selling. Not too of the Nasdaq names are SnP500 companies. The SnP is more connected to the DOW....and SnP is what international investors would be buying if US exposure is desired...of course now they are selling the index. My point being that even though individuals have not dumped equities, there has been a tendency to reallocate out of tech.In addition, tech names (and QQQ especially) have been prefered shorts for traders over the old economy large caps. That can also be a factor. Maybe this means Nasdaq cannot drop from current levels without at least a decent bounce first, despite having high PEs. jmho. btw--I realize this may not agree with what has happened over the past 2 years. April 2001(aprox 1600), followed by a September low (approx 1400) tends to suggest a 1200 low before the next bounce. However, we might have seen enough TECH capitulation to bounce from the 1300s. Just a possibility.