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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING Fundamentals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TraderAlan who wrote (16171)	7/13/2002 10:05:51 AM
From: TraderAlan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

Can't resist another article written the day after the WCOM fiasco: ----------------------------------------- Are You a Speculator or a Spectator? There's bad market mojo out there these days, but little has changed in the last year, decade or century. The markets go up and the markets go down. They're idolized or criticized, depending on the moment. Scandals and frauds don't change the markets or even the marketplace. In fact, they present opportunity if you have a strong stomach. Decide now if you're a speculator or just a spectator. There's a big difference. Spectators sit on the sidelines and wear opinions like hats. Speculators take those opinions and risk real money on them. Opinions require little more than a loud voice or a cynical writing style. Speculation requires courage, capital and commitment. Spectators rationalize failures and place responsibility with the likes of Merrill Lynch, Enron or Tokyo Joe. Speculators realize there are no demons outside of themselves and their own discipline. They see all news, good or bad, as an opportunity to profit, and understand that capitalism has its own self-correcting mechanisms. Spectators may feel good, but they're engaging in self-abuse. After all, why bother with the markets if it isn't to make money? There are far better ways to spend your time than worrying about something you have no stake in. Seriously, take up another hobby if you aren't trading or investing. Get some fresh air and spend quality time with the kids. Leave market opinions to those willing to put their money where their mouths are. I hate watching sports on television. A few years back, I realized my feelings about quarterbacks or coaches were completely worthless. After all, I wasn't the manager and had nothing to lose if my team went down to defeat. So it goes with market watching. Your thoughts on Greenspan, Enron or Cramer have little value if you don't trade or invest with them. Market voyeurism is back in full force with the WorldCom (WCOME:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) scandal. But how are you trading it? Are you buying the selloff and selling the bounce? Or are you too paralyzed by fear to do anything at all? Understand that traders are counting on your fear to pay the bills this week. Your actions on Wednesday told you whether you are a spectator or a speculator. Of course, there was nothing wrong with stepping to the sidelines while the markets worked out volatility. But did you do that as a plan of action for the day, or was it your fight-or-flight instinct kicking into gear and throwing you into a foxhole? I've been really scared only one time in recent years. That was when they closed the markets following the Sept. 11 tragedy. That painful event did the one thing I couldn't handle emotionally at the time: It took away the source of my livelihood. Contrast those shut doors with scandals that come along periodically to shake the financial tree. No matter how awful or disturbing they might be, at least the market's open for business and ready to execute trades. Realize it's still the same as it ever was. You can't decide how the markets will offer opportunity. All you can do is decide whether to play the game. Choosing to be a speculator requires courage and a great deal of concentration. But it's a better way to spend your time than spewing flames on a stock message board.

To: TraderAlan who wrote (16171)	7/14/2002 9:02:41 AM
From: ams	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18137

<Do you know you could have posted those same articles all through the 1990s because "they" were writing exactly the same thing> Please consider the case of the Boy Who Cried Wolf. The moral of that story is not to lie because people won't believe you when you finally tell the truth. I believe that's what we have here except it's not a wolf, it's Mother Bear and she's very angry. I remember the Nikkei naysayers throughout the 80's warning about the ridiculous valuations of the Nikkei and the Japanese hype. Many Japan naysayers were heavily criticized and even called racist. Look at the Nikkei now (12 years later). A year or two ago when our stock market bubble burst and people compared our situation to the Nikkei, the popular defense was "we're different from the Japanese (corruption) and we don't have a banking problem because we "mark to market." With our current revelations of malfeasance in corporations and maybe even our President/Vice President, I don't hear that defense anymore. For anyone who thinks we don't have a banking problem, you're kidding yourself. I read plenty about the naysayers that were discredited before the 1929 crash and The Great Depression. The story is the same for all the manias/bubbles. That's why they call it a mania. We are now in denial stage. For anyone who's interested in reading about the anatomy of manias and it's aftermath, try this: amazon.com But I warn you, it's very dry reading. It took me awhile, but well worth the time invested. Interesting side note: I used to tell my wife that I don't have much time to read since becoming a father some years back. But the opposite is true, I'm reading a lot now: during piano lessons, swimming lessons, karate, sports practice. It's great and no one to bother me while I wait and read. Everyone has experiences talking to devils advocates. They're easy to figure out. Whenever you bring up a point, they automatically take the opposite view (I think it's an ego trip and probably related to low self-esteem) and scramble for reasons to justify their position. The reasons are usually weak, in generalities, and sometimes completely irrelevant. In parties and other gatherings, I know to politely walk away. In all my post I've clearly, to the best of my ability, stated my case and provided links when available. Please try to return the favor. Remember, I am not selling any book, promote a website, or God forbid, build up a reputation to be a GURU one day. Money doesn't mean THAT much to me. I have nothing to gain except a desire to get a productive discussion on what I believe is a serious situation in our market/country. Good trading, ams