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To: stockman_scott who wrote (170164)	7/13/2002 1:46:25 PM
From: H James Morris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Has Wall Street hit bottom..? It depends on who you listen to. <<By 8:20 a.m. on July 9, Jill Bell was already calling her broker. She had just one word for him: Sell. "I've lost a nice little piece of change, and I don't want to lose any more," says the 57-year-old executive assistant from Atlanta. After studying her second-quarter mutual fund statements, her mind was made up: "I'd rather make no money at all than keep losing 5% of it every three months." Bell has a lot of company. Increasing numbers of investors are throwing in the towel on their U.S. stock funds, battered by rising mistrust of Corporate America and mounting portfolio losses. In the five weeks through July 5, U.S. equity funds bled nearly as much money as they did in the weeks after September 11. In June, outflows totaled an estimated $20 billion vs. inflows of $4.8 billion in May, according to TrimTabs.com Investment Research Inc. And the trend is accelerating: Banc of America Securities Chief Investment Strategist Thomas McManus estimates that during the four-day holiday week ended July 2, another $4.2 billion headed out the door. True, even with the recent exodus, investors have put a net $52 billion into mutual funds this year through June, slightly more than in the same period last year. Yet they turned decidedly pessimistic as second quarter losses of 12.2% by the average U.S. stock fund swamped minuscule first-quarter gains. What's worse, the latest quarter means that the three years through June produced an annualized loss of almost 4.2%--the first time in a generation that the average stock fund has shown negative returns over a three-year period. Paradoxically, the flight from the market by ordinary investors is a heartening sign to the pros. "When people are saying forget about it, I want nothing to do with my equity mutual fund, that's usually a good sign that things are washing out," says Brian G. Belski, market strategist with U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray. Exactly the reverse happened in the first half of 2000, when investors giddily plowed a record $182 billion into mutual funds at the market's peak. To be sure, sentiment polls and technical indicators have failed miserably to predict a bottom in this post-tech-bubble market. Though it seems like twisted logic, it may well be that as more investors lose hope, the nearer the market is to a bottom. Ultimately, investors will be able to climb the wall of worry only when they see a solid rebound in corporate earnings that they can trust.>> businessweek.com

To: stockman_scott who wrote (170164)	7/13/2002 2:56:33 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

<<Has Wall Street Hit Bottom..?>> Averages do not mean much here. Lets consider the case of an investor who had say $4 mil in assets in 2000 And with 70% of new moiney going into tech stocks at the time he was probably heavily invested there -walking on air expecting gains of another 50% He may now have losses of 70% or 2.8 mil, and if somewhat wise has only 500k left in the equities plus 500 k outside and with big stocks getting crushed, his bonds or real estate are looking like gold fields. IMO the result is that first we need a major sustained rally with increased confidence in management and government before he will move any money into the market ( by selling something else) Even if his wife will permit him to re-invest. Words from the Press and government have done nothing to increase confidence, since people are concentrating on what is wrong instead of what is right. There is no rally in sight (bulls expect this earnings season may create one, but is unlikely to last) The world population is 6,300 mm How many are investors ?. In the US perhaps 60 mm of 287 mm or 20% In China or India far less, but say 2% there and even less in Africa Overall then not more than 5% or 315 mm THEREFORE: Csco has 7.17 bil shares outstanding and every investor in the world owns (on average) 23 shares Csco, plus 17 Ciiticorp, plus 14 Msft, plus 13 Orcl. plus 12 ATT plus portions of the other 5000 + public US corporations and portions of all other public corporations in the entire world. Unless the US can stay on top of the heap, regarded as safest place to invest, some of these will qualify only as wallpaper. Sig (fill in any figures you want, it still says there are far too many shares of these companies outstanding) . .