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To: yard_man who wrote (45545)7/13/2002 8:52:19 PM
From: AllansAlias  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 209892
 
I think you know this, but to be clear, I am not a permabear. I have waiting for months to be a buyer. When not a whole lot of people were looking for it, I wanted to see a deep breach of the September lows, along with a few other conditions that we have discussed (ad nauseum really).

At each new low, I did not see the conditions and have been clear each time that I was not a buyer. I sincerely hope not to be looking down when the market takes off to the upside -- I want to be a buyer.

I am sticking to what I saw as of Friday morning -- a turn late Monday or early Tuesday. I do not think we will see my exogenous event: a bad news shock that comes out of left field. I think that comes after the next rally.

So, to put it simple, at this point I see:

down/up/bigger down

Some early timing work is telling me that we see a high around Christmas. I'll keep working on that side of the Voodoo protocol and report here when we get the next decent rally (I'll need that to finish the timing work).

This is taking longer than I thought. If price does some damage to the upside, I'll change my tune real fast. It is hard for me to keep looking down with the VIX getting so darn high.