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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (37613)	7/13/2002 9:51:49 PM
From: Return to Sender	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68959

I believe guidance will be the most important factor of all. I think we are going to see a lot of companies lowering their forecasts for future earnings. Because of this, and other reasons, the VIX will probably find a reason to head back towards 55 in here before, or in, October. At that time I think we should be long. October, I mean, after the VIX spikes, the S&P 500 should be selling at a much more reasonable P/E multiple. Just the humble opinion of an all too often disappointed bull. RtS

To: j g cordes who wrote (37613)	7/13/2002 9:58:14 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 68959

Closing Technical Market Comments Fri Jul 12th 2002 WEEK CLOSES IN LIMBO; NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS CRITICAL By Harry Boxer, The Technical Trader (www.thetechtrader.com) thetechtrader.com We had our ups and downs today, that’s for sure. The market opened with a strong gap to the upside after Dell’s earnings announcement last night. It immediately sold off sharply but held support at the moving averages, and then we had another sharp morning rally that took us up to the day’s highs at around 1025 on the Nasdaq 100 and about 935 on the S&P 500. At that point we went into a slow but orderly sell-off into the lunch hour, had a bounce, and for the following few hours the indices formed what appeared to be coil type consolidation patterns. When they got to the apex of those patterns and they failed to break to the upside, a downside break occurred and we had a strong sell-off that took them back to retest the early morning lows. They bounced right there and came off those lows on both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, avoiding closing at the lows for the day. Net on the day the Dow was down 117 points, but still about 85 points off the lows. The S&P 500 closed down 6 but was 8 points off the low. The Nasdaq 100 closed at 1001, up 3, and about 12 points off the low. It was a rather mixed day today. The SOX Index, up about 1.5%, or 4.66, basically was the reason why Nasdaq was up today. The technicals were negative. Advance-declines on New York were about 3-2 negative. On Nasdaq they were about 17-15 negative, not too bad there. Up/down volume was 10-9 negative on Nasdaq with over 2 billion traded. New York was about 4-3 negative with about 1.6 billion traded there. It’s very important the market doesn’t open sharply down Monday morning because if so they’re going to test the yearly lows again around 950 on the Nasdaq 100. If they take that out the indices would be very vulnerable to additional sharp declines. So we’re in a fairly critical time short-term. I’d like to see the market move up on Monday and at least test the 1060-70 zone on the NDX, which is resistance. The S&P 500 has support down in that 900 level and shorter-term support around 913. We’ll see if those are tested or whether the market can open firm and have a good day on Monday. I think Monday will set the tone for the rest of the week next week. We’re still not out of the woods. As I indicated yesterday, the VIX, VXN and oscillator levels are not quite as extreme as we see at very important lows, although they got up there yesterday to a level which triggered today’s rally. But the lack of follow-through was once again disappointing. Good trading! Harry