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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Little Joe who wrote (15707)	7/14/2002 2:34:04 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

Little Joe, I'm not sure. But they don't look bullish to me. A lot of charts and indexes have one thing in common, and that is they appear to have 1990 to 1995 levels in their LT sights. I was looking at the CRB the other evening, and it looks possible to be putting in a top here as well. A little early to say with confidence however. We are hearing more and more warnings and/or hints from those analysts we respect that the deflation possibility is growing ever more probable. It it comes to pass I'm of the opinion it will take everything down. I'm not one to think that history repeats itself in an exact manner. Therefore I'm not in the 1929 era depression camp. I don't think that should repeat itself, not quite the same anyway. So maybe what we got going on here is one hell of a re-evaluation process. That would be preferable to the '29 scenario. I have a not so strong opinion at present that we have just completed the first leg down in the broader markets, and we get a little correction here. It will be stronger in certain areas, like tech I hope. I also think there are definite signs the next leg down is going to be brutal and cut out the heart. A lot of market cap is going to get wiped out. No reason for the XOI to be spared. As for the internal working of the oil industry, it has the same problems as many other segments of industry. Insufficient and/or inconsistent profits. All these recent mergers didn't occur because the industry is healthy.