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To: 49thMIMOMander who wrote (21156)	7/14/2002 12:30:40 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 34857

Andrew Seybold on xcdma subs ... << What is the Seybold definition of a <voice SMS user> >> Evidently Andy hasn't been paying too much attention to the UMTS forum which has always forecast and still projects 28% of worldwide subs using 3G xcdma by 2010 and doesn't expect spectrum refaming to begin much if any before then - or even then. --the fallacy of the GSM community is thinking that EVERY GSM subscriber becomes a WCDMA subscriber which I believe to be flawed thinking--voice only and voice SMS users don't have much incentive to go to WCDMA until the operators force them off the GSM networks. Rather than this being a "fallacy of the GSM community", IMO, it reflects some flawed thinking on behalf of some zealous cdma wishful thinkers including a CEO who once told his faithful flock that the second billion subs (actually he said handsets) would be predominately cdma while he presented a slide that forecast that cdma would finish the year with 100 million subs although the official CDG count turned out to be 80,440,000. Same CEO who in May of this year nonchalantly stated to assembled analysts that cdma subs at year end would total 170 million. - Eric -