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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: que seria who wrote (15045)	7/14/2002 11:54:29 AM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 23153

que, I agree we are in for a very volatile week, but history has taught me to buy and hold when the VIX gets up around 40. I was tempted to do the same on Friday, but most of my stocks did very well despite the sell off in the Dow and the Naz closing down. PMCS up 11.89% BRCM up 8.63% BRCD up 6.38% CYMI up 5.24% VTSS up 5% EMC up 4.91% MU up 4.65% ELX up 4.62% CIEN up 3.15% AMAT up 1.37% Not bad for a down day. We could have a panic sell in the next few days, or we could just as easy have a gap open and a summer rally that last 3-5 weeks with gains of 50% on many of the holdings. My plan is to hold tight and buy on any panic if seen. If the VIX gets over 45, I'll start using margin and if the VIX gets over 50 I'll be pretty much margined out. Many stocks have already bottomed and have started the assent up. I suspect the oils will be brought down with the price of NG to allow us a nice entry point sometime late summer or early fall. Weshallsee, Jim

To: que seria who wrote (15045)	7/14/2002 4:03:17 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

QS, The dots represent a calculated VXN, the lines the actual VXN, since it was created in 2001 after noting the diveregences between the nasdaq and othe markets. Since knowledge of the VXN influences future volatility, does this then make the calculated VXN is more predictive than the current VXN? -g- I think we have a little further to go with both the VXN and the VIX, but I like Jim's idea to add as the VIX spikes, and to stay away from margin until it gets into the 50's - if it does. We might be in a period where the VIX stays over 40 for weeks and the VXN over 60, until the volatility exhausts traders - short and long, and leaves only those with capital and endurance.