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Strategies & Market Trends : Dave Gore's Trades That Make Sense -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Roger Bodine who wrote (9507)7/15/2002 1:56:03 PM
From: Dave Gore  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 16631
 
Quite A Day --- Looks like the DJIA is finally catching up (i.e. down) to the Naz. Many are fearful 8,000 will be the next real support target. They may be right, or it could go lower if panic really starts.

It's hard to believe that so many of us didn't just short the works sometime in 2000. That was sure the "Easy Money", wasn't it. Even those who shorted in Feb. 2002 are havin' fun. Let's recap all the negatives (in no particular order)

- India-Pakistan nuclear war threat

- Terrorist threats to the U.S. with news of 5,000 infiltrators in cities right now

- Corporate Scandals - including Bush & Cheney??

- Arthur Anderson (& maybe other firms still to be found out??)

- U.S. to go after Sadaam?

- Bin Laden - still free or dead??

- Overvaluation of markets still as investors focus more on PE, PEG, etc.

- Can we trust past earnings - a real danger

- Will Congress over-regulate and handcuff future growth?

- Will U.S. and Foreign Investors continue to pull out of the Markets?

- etc., etc.
*****

But wait, there's good news, too. Valuations (for SOME companies for which we can trust earnings) are starting to get tempting and long term all this negativity will pass. Interest rates and inflation are low. Wage growth decent. Economy not that bad and probably getting better. This is cyclical crap that must occur nearly every decade. Kind of reminds me on nature's forest fires. They are actually necessary every so often so that coniferous growth can prosper over the long run. I guess I learned something in forestry classes in college.

Good luck out there.