Mish, here's Turnip load #1:
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Fletch
Date: 7/14/2002 9:20:40 PM
Post # of 3334
Sorry, they are a UK outfit, I have enough difficulties reading US balance sheets, UK is beyond my capabilities....
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: fackedup
Date: 7/14/2002 9:18:26 PM
Post # of 3334
Here is an example of my thinking in late February 2000 #reply-12986501, and then in April 2000 I penned a general call for a bear market to follow a very strong rally late in May (#reply-13483082 ). I rarely go under 10% equity, and that is because some stocks in the core are simply refusing to yield, at that time for instance AGM was on its way from a split adjusted $12 or so to $49 earlier this year, why get out of these kind of stocks? On the other hand, early 2000 was a wild ride and on the Steve Channelling thread we were squeezing very large profits from the like of CDTS, SCON, HAUP, JNPR, BRCD, BRCM, VECO and ANCR, but all these games came to an end. For instance, this post, #reply-13342915, was in response to how low CDTS can go, little did I know, now CDTS just broke the buck (and few keep asking me even very recently, probably with fond memory of the "good old days", is it time to get back in CDTS and SCON <g). During that period, I don't think I got under 30% cash, and actually I remember quite a painful period between May 18, 2000 and roughly the 24th of May, a week were the turnips were too early (they kept calling for the major April/May decline to end May 18 and I and few others on the thread had to sweat it for a week, not much different than the recent premature call here in July). But in the end, we had a nice almost 50% rally allowing all of us to "smell like roses by the middle of July (vbg). If you peruse around the Steve thread in the February July 2000 period, you'll see the height of "exhilaration" and "depth of despair" well represented (VBG).
Zeev
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Fletch
Date: 7/14/2002 6:52:42 PM
Post # of 3334
Right now, I don't know yet how much worse it is going to be, I have us meandering for about six to eight weeks in a relatively narrow channel, maybe 1425 to 1595 before we go into a sharp 250 to 300 decline at the end, from the last "declining" top (probably around 1470 or so), thus the last step would be less than the Nassacre, although it will be shorter in duration (the Nassacre will be about 2 months, and Nebacle may be over in three violent weeks of an average of 80 to 100 Naz points per week.). At least, that is what the turnips have on the menu right now, that may change....particularly if Iraq speak intensifies.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: michalel97123
Date: 7/14/2002 6:31:10 PM
Post # of 3334
You are right, I just corrected it, the October date is a preliminary bottom of the nebacle, but it is too early to call yet...I have a possible bottom on September 16th right now as well, we'll have to see how the summer ramp develops.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: SteveO
Date: 7/14/2002 6:22:52 PM
Post # of 3334
We will need to have serious expansion of new highs and volume for the 1610 in the Naz to be reached by early August IMTO. Right now, this is a low probability scenario for me, I stick with the 1526/55 area as target for the next ramp.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: mlsoft
Date: 7/14/2002 6:20:33 PM
Post # of 3334
mlsoft, welcome to our modest abode. You may want to refer to #msg-415599 where a summary of the failures and successes of the turnips are summarized (via reference to other posts), and at the end of that post, what I see for the immediate future (a weak opening of the week going to probably just around 1300 before we bounce.) Right now the target for the bounce is in the 1526/55 area probably after July 24th, maybe even as late as the first week in August.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: flowsweet
Date: 7/14/2002 5:00:44 PM
Post # of 3334
Yes, I think QCOM will hold this week above $24 and am considering getting back in if they hit it hard.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: augieboo
Date: 7/14/2002 4:59:11 PM
Post # of 3334
augie, augie, what did you do? I just got thirteen calls from various security agencies starting with the FBI (the last time I was interviewed by those guys was in 1988 <g), then the CIA then the NSA and then ten other agencies (or claiming to be from said agencies) I did not know existed, but I decided that all these acronyms they sport are good candidates for shorts if your short allegory got them fired up so...
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: The Realist
Date: 7/14/2002 4:50:38 PM
Post # of 3334
No, I had that more in mind later this month early August. I have the beginning of the week as still weak.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: rahrah
Date: 7/14/2002 4:09:05 PM
Post # of 3334
Larry just asked me to post this on the thread, I am not sure why he is not posting it himself, but sometimes even I have problems understanding Larry (vbg).
Hal is alive and well.
Hal can be reached on IHUB see
investorshub.com
Larry Dudash
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: rahrah
Date: 7/14/2002 4:04:17 PM
Post # of 3334
SLAB is very dangerous on valuation metrics, if it breaches $21, it could very rapidly go to the $10/12 area.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Rick Storm
Date: 7/14/2002 3:56:59 PM
Post # of 3334
No, on MRK I'll simply sell covered calls , I'll keep for the time being the stop under the local low of the next week or so, until it is proven to be the real low.
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Ploutos
Date: 7/14/2002 3:36:35 PM
Post # of 3334
Right now, I see no reasons to return to SI, so yes, I'll be posting here for the next few weeks.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Patrick Bateman
Date: 7/14/2002 3:35:21 PM
Post # of 3334
Pat, that is quite a possibility, can you make sure they give it to me? Actually, on the first trip I had $19.03 in mind for a neat $1.50 profit... (g).
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Patrick Bateman
Date: 7/14/2002 3:33:21 PM
Post # of 3334
Actually, I have gotten a lot of heat on SI for suggesting that Greenspan did what he had to do when he did it (1998 and late 1999) to avoid major economic dislocations. I really thought he should have started lowering interests on the Dec 19 2000, but I also noted at the time that he'll not do it because of the perception that he play politics with rates (getting them up during the elections to defeat the Dems, and getting them back down when the Rep won), particularly that one the first things Bush did was to try and prod him to lower rates. He could not allow the fed's to be perceived as amenable to political pressures (even though, they are of course). That was also one of the reasons I became quite bullish very late in Dec 2000 and got to "fully" loaded on Jan 3 2001 (an accident that an hour later, the fed did a surprise lowering of the rates), because I anticipated an inter feds meeting rate decrease. Right now, I actually think he should have started to go back to the 2.5% rate at least, if for no other reasons as to leave room for decreases in case a financial melt down accidentally occurs. The market will perceive a minimal rate increase as quite positive, the chant of the talking heads will be "the recovery is so strong, the feds are leaning against the wind"
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: The Realist
Date: 7/14/2002 3:20:25 PM
Post # of 3334
I don't think it is too late, you probably can get under my price early next week. That plan was elaborated last here: #reply-17638623, and #reply-17485192, but on MRK after that loss at $60, I did have a swing trade of about $3 profit to "compensate" for the error. e patient, I think you can get it back between $42.75 and $43.25.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: The Realist
Date: 7/14/2002 3:09:11 PM
Post # of 3334
Financially, the deal is more or less OK, but they are going to take a bunch of goodwill on the book, and what I fear is an environment where companies having excessive goodwill on the books is penalized (Veco will probably end up with negative "clean" book value). Don't forget, a bunch of new shares are going to be issued, from the current 30 MM shares or so to close to 75 MM shares, and while sales will almost double, there will be more than double the shares. If you assume that a PS of 3 will be justified some time in the next few months on VECO, then yes, $30 could be reached, but you'd better be fast, because I don't think it will stay there for long. I have a target of $22/$24 only, and I'll be happy to take it out there. Mind you, at a valuation of 1 times sales, VECO could easily drop to $10.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Patrick Bateman
Date: 7/14/2002 1:28:54 PM
Post # of 3334
Any one of these three is possible with the highest probability to the middle one (g).
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: michalel97123
Date: 7/14/2002 1:27:19 PM
Post # of 3334
The seasonal reason are important, but more so the fact that the Nassacre did not finish with any signs of capitulative action. Thus, for now, I have a nebacle coming after we ramp up to the 1526/55 area or so.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: was Jeff now Steve
Date: 7/14/2002 1:25:12 PM
Post # of 3334
I think that MRK could easily go to $50/$51 on the next rally, I just hope it holds the line at $42 during the next week (g). MRK was an example of a very disciplined trading tactic. After being absent for quite some time, I reentered earlier this year at $63 and change and double up just above $60, it then breached $60 and i was out on a bounce barely above $60, taking a loss, then my forecast was for it to break first to the $53 area and then $10 bucks lower, I waited very patiently until last week it finally landed in at under $43, a $17 decline, so "compared" to LTBH I am already 25% ahead since at $43 I bought 25% more than the number of shares sold at $60, and had a little change "left over" (g). I followed exactly the strategy outlined on July 22nd for that one.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: The Realist
Date: 7/14/2002 12:31:10 PM
Post # of 3334
You really must try and get a course in translation off my Hungarian, I said that:
a. I don't do options, translation: I am not the one to advise on that.
b. VECO's options are trade thinly, translatio: MM's are going to take your money on the B/A spread.
c. Unless you are going to wait for a bounce to write the options and take the risk, you'll get essentially no premium: Translation, are you ready to take that risk?
Why are you looking at an option tactic, do you own the stock and want to increase your returns? If yes, just sell the Oct 20' if you can get $2 to $2.5, and then either let the stock be called (a nice $4 to $4.5 gain or about 25% in three months), or if they approach sub $.15 buy them back and roll into the January 03.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: lostalot
Date: 7/14/2002 12:19:35 PM
Post # of 3334
Actually, the end of the year forecast has now be reduced by about 300 Naz points to around 1834 (I should say the high before the end of the year, this is not a "year end number), as have explained in a prior post here. I can't look yet into 2003 since there are political as well as economic situations yet unresolved. Even that forecast depends a lot on the nature of the Autumn retracement or maybe even Autumn "Nebacle" (Naz Debacle),
Zeev
Market Sense and Sentiment (MKTSS)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: alexed
Date: 7/14/2002 11:43:33 AM
Post # of 5580
I think we are going to have some "major divergence" between the Dow and the NAZ here, but short term, I would say we are within 3 days of a good tradeable bottom.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: The Realist
Date: 7/14/2002 11:36:42 AM
Post # of 3334
I don't "do" options (except writing covered options from time to time, which I will do on MRK soon). If you execute your strategy "judiciously", I think you could do well buying the 04 leaps here (I am not sure if they are available), but you'll have to wait for a major bounce in the stock to start and write the calls, because here, unless you write the 17.5 or the August $20, you will not get much of a premium. If you do that, you of course expose yourself to a possible further decline in VECO, and I am not sure if that is a risk you want to take. Furthermore, because options in VECO are traded very thinly, the MM will take you to the cleaner on the B/A spread, another argument against this tactic.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: tantal
Date: 7/14/2002 11:27:56 AM
Post # of 3334
That is fine, but that is straight compensation, and why should the company decide in what form the employee should get it, give the employee cash. The idea with the options is that employees have an impact on the company's performance and better performance will bring about higher shares prices, the employee need not to make a commitment of its own capital, not take on tax liability at once, but can wait (a limited period) until he sees if indeed the effort he is putting in brings about better performance and better share prices.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: lostalot
Date: 7/14/2002 11:23:42 AM
Post # of 3334
Because of its leadership position, INTC may very well stay over priced for quite some time. Historically, if memory serves, INTC worst P/S ratio was 1.6 and its highest might have been as high 16, right now at about a P/S ratio of 4.5 we are closer to the bottom of this valuation metrics, but I think that a secular bear market will bring this even lower (possibly by having the price of the stock bound range between about $15 to $35 over a period of years, while sales increase again, for instance from the a more robust PC environment as well as from many other activities INTC has invested in in the last few years). Right now, I have already suggested that INTC could go to the $22 area in the next ramp, before it once more succumb to the weight of its excessive valuation.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: michalel97123
Date: 7/14/2002 11:05:56 AM
Post # of 3334
Mike, I really think that you should talk to a professional adviser on that since you may include other "instruments" as a total picture of planning retirement, you apparently should not be gambling with timing the market, since you have not been pretty good at controlling your own investment psychology and you change from a "trader" to a LTBH as the stocks you are in get into the red. My view is simple, in the next 5 years, you are not going to have a lengthy period like the 1982/1999 period where "all boats were lifted" and you are more likely to buy tops when optimism returns and sell bottoms when pessimism prevails. If you do that, you will decimate again your folio.
I think that people reading this thread should really look in the mirror and ask themselves if trading (whether day-trading, swing trading or longer term investing) is really for them. I don't think that the next five years are going to be good to those doing LTBH, unless their time horizons is in the 20 years range and they have continuous flow of new resources to take advantage of lower and lower prices to "average down". Traders should know to take a loss when an error was made (and yes accept the occasional whipsaw such loss taking brings with it) so they can come back and "fight another day". I see too many people "declaring themselves" traders, but becoming LTBH when the stocks they are in go into the red, hopping to "get even" or even average down in losing stocks (I think that Hands On did that, unfortunately with WCOM). When one does that, it has the result of concentrating one's portofolio into the underperforming part of the market.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: Agustus Gloop
Date: 7/14/2002 9:45:01 AM
Post # of 3334
Let me ask a simple question, are stock options granted here to MSFT at let say $50/hare more dilutive than MSFT doing a secondary at the same price level? Options are in a way a secondary that short circuits wall street distribution channels and allows the employees of the company to benefit in the event that the price increases. What is wrong, is to artificially inflate the price of the underlying equities by "engineering" balance sheets (like WCOM) and then using the artificial price increase t dump excessively expensive shares on the public. Someone stated here earlier that it is the public that is paying for these options (when buying shares from optionees at excessive valuations), not the companies, nor the existing stock holders, and that is the point. One practice, however, should be frowned upon, the massive replacement of high priced options with newer lower priced options (and often in much greater quantities). I am not sure how that can be done, but good boards of directors should put a lid on this practice.
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: PETE from STAMFORD, CT
Date: 7/14/2002 9:37:16 AM
Post # of 3334
Actually, the 10Q always includes a table of outstanding options and warrants and their respective lives and strike prices, so the disclosure is already there. I am not saying that "shenanigans" are not going on (see my "fight" two three years ago with the guys believing TSIG will become a "giant", while management kept pumping out shares for themselves in ludicrous quantities, options was not the only mechanism used).
Zeev
Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)
Posted by: Zeev Hed
In reply to: PETE from STAMFORD, CT
Date: 7/14/2002 8:50:13 AM
Post # of 3334
I have no disagreement except your assertion that it dilutes book value. Most stock option's strike prices are above book value, thus when the optionee pays the strike price (to the company's coffers), the average book value increases. The fact that the optionee takes at least part of the stock granted and sell it to the public has no relevance. In most cases he is forced to do so in order to pay taxes. Many MSFT employees which failed to do that, went bankrupt in the last two years. These employees exercised options deep in the money (at the time), had a tax liability on the difference between the market price on the day of exercise and the strike price of the options, but did not sell any shares to pay for that liability, and found, in many cases that they hold shares at a price, now, under the strike price and no liquid assets to pay the taxes with. They "bought their own dream" that MSFT will go up forever. That despite the fact that their own management by their own action (continuous sale of stock) told them differently.
Zeev |
