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To: TobagoJack who wrote (179782)	7/15/2002 4:32:00 AM
From: Box-By-The-Riviera™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

the bankruptcy of the union, nothing big. someone remarked to me yesterday the cold war was a great thing for rebuilding europe, and in particular, germany after WW2. now the cold war is over, the USA and Russia are suddenly close friends, the euro union is on the verge of absorbing its poorer brothers on the eastern side which will add to the sucking sounds of euro wealth already plunging into the euro toilette....along with the rising tax burdens i.e. europe/germany is now on its own without a politcal raison d'etre that makes it "matter".... hence its reversion back to some basic mean status quo. as forecast by someone (there have been so many, perhaps DR. R)... all fiat currencies must fail now in a game called the weakest link to exports.... and for them all to fail.. they will try to uniformly fail against.... the evil yellow metal. which of course should be sold at the highs at all times.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (179782)	7/15/2002 9:18:04 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Jay , my take on the EUR is nothing more than pure momentum play with busting the stop losses to the upside. Trend following worked miracles for the last 6 years for everyone ignoring fundamentals. It works now for the EUR and YEN and shorting the SPX. The bank I work with just told me that no one is buying EUR's only stops are busted all day long. Keep in mind that many real world entities are placing those stops to hedge their imports / exports with EZ IMHO most Hedge funds are in the game as arbitrage between the US stock market and the EUR and YEN. There is an almost 100% correlation between the SPX and those currencies. Usually those guys strategy is going against the reason sucking in the masses, placing stops just below the purchase price, buy more, and succeed. It is not much different than during the DOT.COM bubble. In the meantime the Eurocrats are happy thinking that the markets have found their new trust in EZ ignoring the fact that their economies are hurting. Except inflation which is moderating in EZ nothing justifies the 15% or so rise in the EUR. On July 4 the EUR was 0.97 USD and now 1.0045 or 3.5% in a week, with more bad news emanating from Europe. As every excesses the reversal can be very painful............... and I am long a substantial bunch of EUR but hedged down to 0.98 which may be to close. IMHO the US economy will rebound quite quickly as a result of the low USD, and tourism to EZ will decline substantially (see airline stocks ). It will be interesting to see what AG testimony will do to the EUR. Last year AG testimony run the EUR from around 0.84 to 0.91 this year it can do the reverse.