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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (15079)	7/15/2002 1:15:01 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

KB, I don't believe what's happening now is anything unusual for Wall St. with the exception that it's happening on a larger scale due to the bull market excesses of the '90s. Companies have almost always over compensated management when viewed from the eyes of the common shareholder. What's making people cry so loudly is the bear market and across the board losses. The blame game is now to point to these issues, which have always plagued the poorly run companies, as being systemic. Blame the managers for poor decisions, blame the analysts for failing to point out these poor decisions, blame the SEC for allowing these poor decisions, blame the auditors for failing to blow the whistle on these poor decisions, blame Greenspan, blame the current or former President... and let's not forget to blame OSB! Blame everyone except the common shareholder for making a poor investment decision!!! Most people are too willing to place the blame on others. With the exception of company based 401Ks where the only option was to purchase the company's own stock, people make their own decisions as to where and how much to invest. They should understand the risk involved, period! You might lose a portion or all of your investment! It's that simple. Keep in mind that many of the above deserve a portion of the blame. Many of these companies deserve to go bankrupt or sold in a fire sale for pennies on the dollar. At the same time, one should know that a stock could be halted at any time. Your investment could be flushed down the drain in an instant, with little recourse except to take a tax loss. This is the way the market works, for better or for worse. Is there justice in the actions of these people who swindle others? No. Should they be held accountable? Of course. Should people who invest in any stock market understand THE RISK involved with their "investment"? YES - with a capital Y. E. S. !!!

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (15079)	7/15/2002 1:20:52 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 23153

Business spending key to growth Bond market group's survey is cautiously optimistic By William L. Watts, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 12:43 PM ET July 15, 2002 WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Bond market economists expect a continuing U.S. recovery to gradually push up interest rates, they said on the eve of Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan's semiannual report to Congress. Recovering business investment will help sustain the U.S. economic recovery -- if it can stave off the effect of stock market weakness and the threat of terror attacks, according to a new survey of bond market professionals Based on its semiannual survey, the Bond Market Association's Economic Advisory Committee projected U.S. gross domestic product to grow 3.8 percent in 2002 and 3.7 percent in 2003. Business investment, which has been on the decline for the past five years, is expected to be a key driving factor, taking over from resilient consumer spending that can't be expected to continue driving a recovery, the committee said. But the economists also sounded a note of caution. "This is the one (area) that could go awry," Frederick S. Breimyer, an economist at State Street Corp. and a member of the advisory committee, told reporters. If investment continues its gradual recovery, however, it is expected to pace the rebound into 2003, he said. The committee's consensus forecast predicts the Federal Reserve will begin tightening interest rates by the end of the year, nudging up the Fed funds rate a quarter-point by the end of 2003 to 2 percent. By September 2003, the committee expects the rate to be at 3 percent. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan will deliver his semiannual monetary policy report to Congress on Tuesday. Bill Dudley, chief economist at Goldman Sachs and chairman of the Economic Advisory Committee, said he expects Greenspan to be cautiously upbeat. "It will be the glass is half-full rather than the glass is half-empty." Dudley said just more than half of the panel's 26 members saw rates rising by the end of the year, while all saw the Fed moving by mid-2003. As a result of expectations for continued growth and a rise in official interest rates, the panel expects the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to rise by about 1 percentage point to 5.65 percent by September 2003. As a result, home mortgage rates are also expected to rise, but not enough to put much of a damper on home sales. Downside risks The survey found committee members believe continued accounting and corporate governance scandals have eroded investor confidence and undercut stock prices, contributing to a reverse "wealth effect" that has cut into consumer spending and increased capital costs for businesses looking to invest. Other threats include further terrorist attacks or an erosion of consumer confidence due to future U.S. military engagements. A substantially weaker dollar and higher energy prices are among potential developments that could also sap growth, the economists warned. Meanwhile, inflation is expected to remain tame. The panel forecasts a 2.3 percent rise in 2002, followed by a 2.6 rise in 2003. Unemployment is seen averaging 5.9 percent this year and 5.7 percent in 2003. __________________________________________ William L. Watts is a reporter for CBS.MarketWatch.com.