Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Trend Setters and Range Riders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Susan G who wrote (20644)	7/15/2002 12:14:59 PM
From: Susan G	Respond to of 26752

watch the SPX dive here, UNREAL nas lost 1350, but much stronger than SPX today

To: Susan G who wrote (20644)	7/15/2002 12:16:55 PM
From: backman	Respond to of 26752

some thoughts from steve wood's, who runs this website which i subscribe to floatanalysis.com as always, FWIW..commentary before market opened today Commentary Friday's breakout action on FloatChart Central was very interesting and requires special attention! Notice the following points: 1) This is the first day in several weeks that breakouts have outnumbered breakdowns (Seven breakouts to four breakdowns). 2) This the first time in months that all the stocks are technology or technology related stocks. 3) This is the first time in quite a while that we have gotten breakouts that are in the same industry groups (Two networkers, two internet, two software) 4) If you list the top twenty breakouts in the last 20 days by 'Float Rank' notice that 14 out of 20 are technology or technology related stocks. (2 Networking, 2 Internet, 1 Computer Services, 5 Semiconductors, 2 Software, 1 Telecom and 1 Wireless) 5) Some of these breakout stocks were the same leaders that were the first to breakout above their float turnovers at the bottom after the September 11th tragedy (EXPE 10/3/02, BRCD 10/8, QLGC 10/3, JNPR 10/4, NVDA 10/4). So what does all this mean? We MAY be in for the a new rally because this is how the indicators begin to look when the market turns around. Speculative technology issues tend to be the first out of the gate in new rallies and they tend to breakout above their float turnovers together. Its like the first signs of Spring; like new flowers that are beginning to break forth together. How will you know if its real? Look for more of the same thing. More tech stocks breaking out. And look for a William O'Neill follow-through day in the broad market indexes. This is where you see a jump of 2% or more on bigger volume than the day before. You want to see this in the first week or so of a new rally. What this tells you is that big institutional players are piling back in. If it is for real, is this the final bottom? We doubt it, there's not enough of a panic among the long term 'hold forever' average American on the streets who buys mutual funds. When they throw in the towel then we think we'll see a bottom. The worst months of the year are always September and October so until those are past we have a hard time imagining a long term bottom in place. Our Bullish/Bearish signals are still on the extreme bearish side which may be a sign the broad market is extremely over sold and ready for a bounce. The Bull/Bear Float Rank moved down to 26. (Any number above 50 implies a bullish market and below it implies a bearish market.) The breakdown to breakout ratio over the last 20 days improved slightly again at 76 to 28. When the market really turns around you'll see these numbers completely reverse as stock after stock will rise to the top and breakout above its float turnover.