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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (15779)	7/15/2002 3:44:56 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 36161

wave...it's a double-edged sword for Greenspan. He has to "control and manage" the descent... but the last week + today isn't exactly an exercise in control, or management...but, I think all the insiders knew this was coming and that's why there is no major institutional buying here. Unfortunately the consumer is on the verge of panic here... Greenspan and the ESF/PPT will step in tomorrow and stop the hemmoraging during his Humphrey Hawkins testimony that will receive unprecedented media coverage...and per "Maestro" - let's not forget his man's ego... he's setting himself up to be the hero and savior of the market here again... with the ESF/PPT reserving ammo that many thought would have already been spent here to slow the descent of the last week - on keeping the rally supported and moving forward. I think that's why we're down so far - so fast... because the "game" is to let some air out here... no inside baseball buyers here - because they all know the ESF/PPT is going to stop the fall on Tuesday and then use their ammo to keep the rally going....all they did was "save their ammo" here imo. BOA's CEO was on CNBC this am and talked about the "Refinance Boom" being over... and he's right - it is...ie: this low rate environment was low-hanging fruit for anyone and everyone with good credit to refi... and they did... with "did" as in the past tense - being the keyword & concept there. The refinance cycle put more discretionary money into consumer spending & GDP than the purchase/homebuilder cycle has. Greenspan is going to have to cut the Fed Funds rate further imo... - I'll predict (3) .25 bp cuts coming in succession and Mortgage rates for 15 yr fixed hitting 5% within 12 mos. This will keep the last security blanket the consumer has - his home; alive and well.