To: PCSS who wrote (1332 ) 7/15/2002 3:49:23 PM From: Elwood P. Dowd Respond to of 4345 Intel's 2nd-Quarter Results Expected to Meet Reduced Estimates By: Donna Fuscaldo Dow Jones Newswires NEW YORK -- Considering that Intel Corp. (NasdaqNM: INTC - News) issued an earnings warning last month, analysts don't expect surprises from the chip giant when it reports its second-quarter results late Tuesday. ADVERTISEMENT The bigger news will be the company's outlook for the third quarter, which analysts believe will be full of caution. "My guess is that the second quarter will be in line with the midpoint, or slightly below, the midpoint of its revised guidance," said Mark Edelstone, an analyst at Morgan Stanley, which has an "equal-weight" rating on shares of Intel. He expects Intel's forecast for the third quarter will be cautious. Over the past six years, Intel has been guarded when doling out an outlook for the third quarter, and has been able to meet or beat expectations, Edelstone said. "It would be shocking if Intel wasn't cautious," he said. Most of Intel's third-quarter sales comes at the end of the quarter. Typically, Intel's sales are stronger in the second half of the year, when back- to-school and holiday shopping boost sales of personal computers. The average earnings estimate of analysts polled by Thomson First Call for the third quarter is 14 cents a share on $6.72 billion in revenue. In the year-ago third quarter, Intel posted earnings of 10 cents a share and revenue of $6.54 billion. Analysts expect Intel to report earnings of 11 cents a share on revenue of $ 6.34 billion for the second quarter. Last year, Intel reported second-quarter earnings of 12 cents a share and revenue of $6.33 billion. "The June quarter will end up being the worst quarter of the year," said Investec analyst Eric Ross, who has a strong buy rating on Intel. The second quarter was difficult not only for Intel, but for many companies in the PC market. Early last month, Intel rocked the markets when it warned that revenue would be $6.2 billion to $6.5 billion, lower than its previous estimate of $6.4 billion to $7 billion. Intel's revenue warning was followed by warnings from Apple Computer (NasdaqNM: AAPL - News) Inc. ( AAPL) and rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc. . Also, memory-chip maker Micron Technology (NYSE: MU - News) Inc. posted an unexpected loss for its fiscal third quarter. All of the companies blamed weaker-than-expected PC demand. While the second-quarter is usually the slowest period for computer sales, demand was worse than expected in the June quarter. Industry experts cited the absence of new applications that would require consumers to upgrade their PCs. Meanwhile, a cut back in it information-technology spending by corporations has hurt all computer-related companies. Intel, in its warning, noted that gross margins were being pressured by better sales of its cheaper Celeron chips than its higher-priced Pentium 4 microprocessors. Dan Scovel, an analyst at Needham Co ., said that the trend may continue in the third quarter. While the analyst is calling for revenue to increase 7% sequentially in the September quarter and 12% in the fourth quarter and for gross margins to creep up 150 basis points in both quarters, he said his estimates may not come true because of the uncertainty about future demand for PCs. Still, Dell Computer Corp. was able to buck the trend of bad news in the PC market. Last Thursday, the Austin , Texas , computer maker, which solely uses Intel chips, raised its second-quarter revenue and earnings expectations slightly. Tim Mahon, an analyst at Credit Suisse First Boston Corp., wrote in a research report Monday that Dell's positive outlook, as well as comments from Asian printed circuit board makers that they are seeing an uptick in orders, will prompt Intel to give better-than-expected commentary about the third quarter. The analyst is calling for sequential revenue growth in the low-to-mid-single digit range on a percentage basis for the third quarter. A spokesman at Intel declined to comment in advance of Intel's second-quarter earnings report. -By Donna Fuscaldo, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-5253; donna.fuscaldo@ dowjones.com