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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kodiak_bull who wrote (15101)	7/15/2002 8:01:43 PM
From: whitepine	Respond to of 23153

Kb, Appreciate your position and comments about bubbles. IMO, everything is a bubble. All values are relative. There is no baseline value for anything. Gold, PM stocks, DOW, Many already assume this obvious, but I suspect J6P and the average investor does not. Since some are calling for DOW 5- 6000, who can know? Nothing says it won’t decline to that level, or even stay there for 1-3-10 years. If 9200 looked good, 8800 certainly looked better. Two weeks from now, 7500 might look like a great entry level. By Nov., at 6500, the entry point would look even more attractive. Jim_p’s calls today seem reasonable now. Perhaps the fates are on his side. If tomorrow’s market closes below today’s lows, his entry points will be just another case of bargain hunting run afoul. If averages decline 50 points/day, it won’t take long for 8000 to look overvalued. If LU looked great at 7, 5, or 4…is it a screaming buy today? Or SUNW, NT, ADLAE, and a host of others? Tough to pick the opportunities when all is relative. If the PE of SUNW is still north of 25, is it a buy? I think not. AHC (PE 9)? INTC @ 28, 22, 16, or 9? About two weeks ago, an analyst said the Euro was overvalued against the US dollar at .96 Bought Eurobonds and foreign currencies anyway. Fair value or bubble? 1.20USD=1E ? After reviewing current account balances (deficits), the best case for conventional application of bubble, IMO, is in overvaluation of USD. Merely suggesting the use of the word Bubble is misleading by any and all. Tough to pick the bottoms, IMO, just as it is difficult to deal with 400 point swings within 2 hrs. Japan at 30K, 20K, 13K, or 5K by December? Curious, your best guess early Nov. on the DOW and NAS? Regards, whitepine