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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (4033)	7/15/2002 10:44:37 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95420

G, It needn't take 13 years. And I don't agree with Glickenhaus that Nasdaq and Dow are basically equivalent. Everything seems to happen in net-time on the Nasdaq. But my recollection of how secular bears end is that they go out with a whimper rather than a bang. It's a one step forward, two steps backward kind of thing, with plenty of bull traps along the way to frustrate the believers. Secular bear markets die of boredom. They lose even their entertainment value. In my view consumer expectations is the most significant leading indicator and it has just started to turn back down. conference-board.org As it tends to be a reflection of the stock market and the commensurate wealth/poverty effect, it seems destined for yet another drubbing this month. I didn't become active until August 1982, though I never tried daytrading until this year (inspired by AD and QT). I was working as a clerk in external relations for the Harvard Business School and recognized that if I applied myself half as diligently to the market as I was to my day job, that I could make a considerable amount of money in the market. Naturally I was much too conservative to make serious money. But I was attending meetings of the Boston Computer Society and watching the early PC tycoons like Mitch Kapor make their pitches. No question it was a decade of tech. My biggest mistake was in confusing the cyclical bear of '87 for a secular bear due to the severity of the crash. Caused me to miss out on some juicy bargains that autumn and change careers. That's probably why I'm so keen on trying to get it right this time around. <g> Sam