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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (64893)	7/15/2002 11:39:51 PM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

G, So what about tech from here? Expectations have come down, and thus valuations, however, valuations are still high given current IT spending estimates. Some might argue that because they're high and/or because they were much lower prior to the tech bubble, we have more downside ahead. Counter to that is my current belief that we're not going to return to those previous levels. Tech is what's going to move us forward and the market knows it. That knowledge should keep a floor on the sector. While we could easily see overall sideways action through the end of the year, I think there's also a good chance at a rally from here. Certainly the bearish sentiment is growin' louder, folks are becomin' more conservative with their portfolios, volatility is increasin', earnings comparisons are gettin' easier and the seasons are changin' in tech's favor. Add to that some of the seemingly overlooked general economic positives that Don was referencing, and perhaps things aren't all that terrible after all. (In any case, I'll just keep tryin' to convince myself with posts like this!) AdvocateDevil

To: Gottfried who wrote (64893)	7/15/2002 11:46:02 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I think your chart shows very well 2 distinct types of "markets". The first one goes from 1960 to 1982, a period of 22 years, and as you say <<it's a trader's dream>>. From 1982 until today, about 20 years, the trendline is "almost straight". I submit that each requires a different style of trading/investing. In the first part of the chart, had you tried to be a "buy and hold investor", you could have bought in 1962 and sold in 1975, 13 years later and made "no gain". Or, you could have bought in 1964 and sold in 1982, 18 years later and made "no gain". However, by trading at the right times, very good gains could have been made. Now contrast that performance with the second part of the chart from 1982 till today. Buying in 1982 and selling today, 20 years later, a gain of over 10 times could be made. Long term buy and hold was the way to go. What type of period are we entering now? Is it just a "little hiccup" in the "upward march" of the DOW, or will there be an extended period like the first part of the graph. And if the coming years are like the first part of the graph, how long will it last? I think not 18 years like 1964 to 1982. Don