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To: pbull who wrote (8202)	7/15/2002 11:11:42 PM
From: D.B. Cooper	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13815

You might be interested in this guys view From: velociraptor_ Monday, Jul 15, 2002 9:42 PM View Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1839 There are two critical components in the market. One is MSFT and today it broke down out of the triangle which initiates the target. The rally at the end of the day brings it back to an approximate back test position. The bad thing is that MSFT broke an even larger wedge on the weekly chart which suggests a move down to 30 and the only way to break that pattern is for MSFT to move above 60 and I doubt it gets there. In fact, I doubt it even gets back to 56 resistance which is like a rock now. The target for MSFT on the daily chart is 40 so even here we have a good 20% decline coming on the most influentual stock in the indexes. The second critical component is the S&P and the neckline at 923. This broke solidly and activates a 300 target for the long term. Here we need a move above 950 to temporarily halt the pattern with 1000 needed to reverse things and I doubt we see that. If the index can make it past 950, the 970-980 area is a rock here. A local low maybe, but it won't last long. Bear market bottoms are not made out of V bottoms like we saw today, nor will they comprise of a 400 point DOW rally in just over an hour. This market is in huge trouble here and anyone that says other wise is doing wishful thinking. Capitulation? Hehehe...not hardly. You don't end a 20 year bull market at still record valuations and on a strong volume V bottom reversal day. It either grinds painfully over years, or we're going to see a 5 billion share day on the NYSE alone with circuit breakers tripped on the indexes. One thing for sure...this market isn't going to see highs for a long time. It might be 10-20 years before the Nasdaq gets back to 5000. For the next few years though, I think you should be able to count 10,000 on the DOW gone though and 1050 on the S&P. Message 17741836 Good Luck