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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37643)	7/16/2002 5:54:04 AM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68180

Abreviated ADTN CC Notes July 15,2002 -profitable in Q -improved GM -reduced inventory -first up Q by rev in 7 Q's -rev in Q 85.8 mil -HDSL 45.2 mil down from Q1 46.8 mil in Q2 2001, 36.8 mil Q1 2002 -System segment: 29.5 mil up from 27.6 mil q2 2001, 26.6 mil q1 2002 -Digital Business Transport: 11.1 mil down from Q2 2002, 11.6 mil q1 2002 - Rev 68 percent enterprise, 38 percent enterprise 0 Intl rev 6.9 percent of total -GM 48.5 mil vers 41.2 percent Q2 2001, 46.9 percent Q1 2002 -GM improvement due to more efficient manufacturing, reduced product component costs -SGA down 20.2 mil vers 24.8 mil Q1 2002 =Q2 charge due to investment losses -charge reduced EPS by 2 cents inventories down from 47 mil to 41 mil -DSO 52 days vers 50 day Q1 2002 -cash flow from operations 26 mil -Total cahs at end of June 241 mil, net of debt -re-bought 374,00 shares, average cost just under $20 -total bought to date under 2 mil share buy back, 589,000 -Guidance for next Q: -Rev 93-87 mil -GM flat to Q2 -Op Ex flat to Q2 -Tax Rate 28 per -shares out flat -assumes not further impairment charges -EPS 12 to 15 cents Have not seen a recovery yet. Think we have seen the bottom. No uptick yet. Longer the slow down goes on. The strong the re-bound when it comes. Assuming flat/slow soft market as for the last 2 years. Expect conditions will continue into near future. No salary raises yet. Still at reduced levels. DLC outlooks, no change. 1 RBOC trial. 2 still trying system. No movement to date. 10 percent customers: VZ, SBC , Sprint Total 10 percent contribution: 44 to 45 percent Gaining share in OC3 area. OC3 being used as access not ring support. Area is under served. Digital and HDSL already have large share, hard to make in roads further. Inventories now in line with run rate. CLEC 14 percent in Q. 12 to 13 percent last Q. Expect no change going forward. Number of employee 1600. T1 growth was flat to slightly down. 34 mil in equities over 29 companies. Write off was on 4 positions. R+D spending across the boards. No emphasis on any one area. Expect T1/HDSL to re-bound first when it happens. No idea of timing. Analyst asked if they were a buyer of any companies given positive cash flow and cash on hand. Answer was they did not see any value at current levels. {Harry: This last statement says it all. ADTN is typically a good mirror of domestic telecom equipment and carrier growth. The T1 uptick expected in the summer does not look like it will appear. T1 growth is flat to down. As a result the need for new routers and upgrades to the back bone will be limited in nature. As it stands now we have are still hearing stories of some companies running equipment beyond spec, but the down fall of WCOM and Q means that there will be surplus equipment and capacity up for sale in coming months. The result is limited demand for new equipment. On the enterprise side it means carrier demand for equipment is weak. All that equipment CSCO sells is typically connect over T1 lines. GigE is still too expensive for most companies. Confirmation to ADTN numbers can be received by upcoming BBOX earnings.]

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37643)	7/16/2002 8:03:23 AM
From: j g cordes	Respond to of 68180

Bear - Bull.. doesn't matter, so long as one makes money. Sometimes I like to clear my mind by searching for fresh analogies. This morning I found another simple image to work with whose purpose is to grossly simplify the modern investment anxiety of weighing millions of possibilities.. We've all seen roller coasters.. imagine having a magic box with an up and down switch. If its switched to UP then it collects energy when its rising.. and conversely, if its switched to DOWN it collects energy while its decending. Now the task is simple... When the track is rising put the box on the roller coaster and flip the switch to UP. When the track is falling flip the switch to DOWN. The important thing to remember is you're trying to collect energy in the magic box... that's all. One's not investing, one's not figuring out the political importance of the Euro or worrying about the Yen. In its simplest description, one if faced with only two decisions. The first is to put the magic box on the track or take it off. The second is which way to flip the switch. Yesterday, when the market was down -418, I put the box on the track and flipped the switch to UP. Today, I have three possible decisions.. take it off, leave it on the track, or flip the switch. What could be simpler..!