To: BWAC who wrote (41682 ) 7/17/2002 8:27:59 AM From: Ron McKinnon Respond to of 53068 Don't Stop Thinking About Yesterday As reported yesterday, rumors circulated that the session's wild reversal was prompted by futures buying by the Federal Reserve, or someone operating on its bequest. Several readers emailed to attribute today's brief midday bounce to similar government machinations. Nothing could be further from the truth, according to Fari Hamzei of Hamzei Analytics, a Los Angeles-based quantitative analytics firm that serves the institutional community. Citing "high level" contacts at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Hamzei said yesterday's rally was spurred by a "straight outright purchase" (vs. a program buy) of S&P 500 futures by three institutional firms. He wouldn't name them but said they were of the pension fund and mutual fund variety vs. hedge funds or government entities. Because of the size of the order -- 10,000 contracts -- he said floor dealers "panicked" and started covering their own shorts, which aided the bounce. That in turn caused more covering, and so on. In very quick order, this sparked the "mammoth moon shot" that was yesterday afternoon. (Dan Fitzpatrick noted Hamzei's observation in RealMoney.com's Columnist Conversation and I put in a follow-up call to the analyst.) Hamzei said the buy orders came in with the S&P futures trading between 875 and 884.42, which represented the contract's "S3" yesterday -- or third tier of intraday support. Given the buyers were not hedge funds -- "who can run in for a day and make lunch money" and get out -- yesterday's action represented a "major buy signal," the trader said. "Not the bottom, but a good, tradeable bottom." Hamzei's theory is that because the buyers were "big boys" who can't (and don't) "turn on a dime," yesterday's intraday lows "are going to be defended" if and when the market revisits them