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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: DiViT who wrote (71201)7/16/2002 5:19:33 PM
From: jonkai  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 74651
 
Is it true that the retail investor drives the price of a stock like Microsoft?
Or is the the price of a stock like Microsoft driven more so by the larger investors such as funds etc?


i saw a report once that said that 80% of the volume of a typical stock on a typical day in the market.... was from day traders, traders that had no position at the end of the day in that same stock.......

long term, the fundamentals of the stock drive the stock price up or down.....not day traders or retail investors or institutional investors..... and fundamentals come from how much TRUE earnings and revenues the company is making and growing, and how many TRUE shares outstanding those earnings are divided among......

MSFT has slowed its True growth of earnings to ziltch, its True Revenue growth is about the exact same as the whole market is expected to grow, 10% to 12% (which is down by the way every year for several years), and MSFT is doing it by adding products that make no earnings.... so you'll have to decide what to use for true Revenue growth.....

and MSFT has driven up true Shares outstanding by nearly 4% a year.....

so..... zilch, +11%(if you turn a blind eye) - 4%.......

this in no way compares to MSFT's P/E.... so something is going to give..... guess what that something will be....

jon.



To: DiViT who wrote (71201)7/16/2002 5:21:15 PM
From: David Howe  Respond to of 74651
 
<< Is it true that the retail investor drives the price of a stock like Microsoft? Or is the the price of a stock like Microsoft driven more so by the larger investors such as funds etc? >>

As you know, it's the later. And, these institutions already know the various reasons that MSFT reports $12 billion in cash flow. They clearly understand the benefits to the company of offering options.

Dave