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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12753)	7/16/2002 9:07:13 PM
From: techanalyst1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

Interest rates were even higher than that. I don't know about disinflation though. Houses went up alot and so did food, I know cuz I sometimes look at the newspapers I saved from the day my kids were born. No one mentions one thing: Demand for stocks went up (that is fur sure cuz you can see it in the volume stats and number of issues that were around then vs. now). Perhaps the advent of the IRA and 401K had just a little bit of an effect on the demand for stocks and why pe's rose during that time. Just maybe? And now those same people who were plowing into stocks are funding college educations and looking towards their own retirement and even if not right around the corner, probably close enough to want to reduce risk. Those who are young with earnings power rising haven't seen the returns that a bull has given. My daughter (age 15) told me today "stocks will just keep going lower for about 3 more years". LOL! I don't know how she came up with that determination. I'm not sure if it's an improvement or a degradation in her thinking which had previously been: "stocks always go down". What did I tell her? "No... they won't go down that long. I'm going to be buying some for you.... but not yet". Never believed in timing, but I still do not think "the low" has been seen and that we have significant downside left pricewise, but not time wise. I think we'll bottom sometime between 02 Q3 and 03 Q1. We'll see. I think in the long run we're fine. TA