Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (15154)	7/16/2002 9:35:21 PM
From: pvz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 23153

Warp, Longer term I know you're not that bullish, and I have some serious concerns as well, which I'll post later. So I'm basing my thoughts on the here and now. One of the things that bug me most is when people say 'this time things are different' - this always happens at inflexion points. The quote you posted is a good example of this. When you wrote <but to plan for that with a VIX +40 is living on borrowed time> you nailed the problem. I think that's Jim P's philosophy too and it works. The issue is the pain you might experience during that borrowed time. Most of the indicators I follow show extreme readings, so the logical conclusion is that an upmove HAS to happen soon. Many of the BP charts, the McLellan oscillator and the vix tell me the market will be higher in 3 weeks, likely sooner, possibly much sooner. A couple of other signals, like the trin, tell me as of today, it's not happening. The way I'm thinking right now is the market will need a stronger catalyst than mere short covering to jumpstart a real change in direction. With people asking every day whether we 'had capitulation', it's obvious to me that we haven't. It's the kind of thing everyone will recognise when it happens. It's that simple. Perhaps that is why the market needs to experience more downside before it reverses. Perhaps another way of approaching this is even simpler. Namely, the near term 'required' targets simply haven't been reached in the indexes. For example, I'm waiting for the 1296 on the compx, and/or approx. 8000 on the dow to hit. I'm not sure anymore about the S&P, because from what I can see today, it has already exceeded my near term target. Perhaps all three need to exceed their targets to freak everyone out. BTW, a friend called me today to ask about cashing in her long term RRSP mutual funds (our version of IRA's). IMO, there's some serious capitulatory thinking going on right now. My philosophy is this whole bottoming thing is more of a dynamic process than a simple formula, hence all the soul-searching and anguish that is taking place. pvz

To: Warpfactor who wrote (15154)	7/16/2002 10:01:39 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Warp, this chart is a bit cleaner and shows 9/11 as well. stockcharts.com[e,a]daclnnay[d20010716,20020716][p]&pref=G G.