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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (2392)	7/17/2002 1:07:12 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 89467

the "usual" contrarian games just wont work here anymore debt levels are much higher now than in 1990 you comment about past history in 1987-1992 unfortunately federal, corporate, household debt levels are much higher now past is hardly prologue anymore federal debts might be around 2x now corp debts might be around 3x now household debts might be 2x now different stage in the 70-year cycle the lack of capex response to 11 Fed cuts is critical and the lack of stock response to 11 Fed cuts contrarian games have been a losing strategy in recent months just like buying the dips have resulted in huge losses next up is more layoffs, and their impact all around such as collapsed consumer spending patterns which will cut off capex completely then layoffs accelerate and wont stop until 10% then real estate gets whacked, the final bubble keep playing contrary games until you are broke wont work, not here, not now a deep long recession is coming stocks forecast it, and dollar confirms it for proof of something eerily wrong, check DJUtility index in this low interest rate envmt, it is IN SHARP STEADY DECLINE this indicates (as Richard Russell points out) a debt meltdown and also, never since 1960 have first-time unemployment claims experienced a double dip, then rise to higher levels it did so this past year ominously / jim