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To: bcrafty who wrote (45921)7/17/2002 9:32:57 AM
From: John Madarasz  Respond to of 209892
 
I'm basing my thoughts on the data from 1951 to present for the Snp, and from 71 to present for the Nasdaq.

Of course no indicator is foolproof, but for sheer reliability and historical precedence, there are not many schools that outperform the seasonality factor. Period. Check out some of Allan Newman's essays on the subject at cross-currents.net

i disagree completely that this is a tertiary factor, or indicator. Data just does not support that argument.

Combine that with the election year statistic info i've posted here previously, and we have a very powerful overiding force in this downtrend to contend with.