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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Warpfactor who wrote (15180)	7/17/2002 11:46:53 AM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 23153

Looks like some mid morning profit taking. Still too many traders and sellers in the market? I suspect the number is getting smaller. Should be interesting to see how we close today. My guess is we get a strong close. Jim

To: Warpfactor who wrote (15180)	7/17/2002 11:52:30 AM
From: pvz	Respond to of 23153

Have you looked at unh and wlp? Strong companies, good earnings, but look at the bearish moving average crossovers. And, given their defensive nature, a tech rally could take money out of here. It will take a lot of traction to reverse these, although nothing is impossible, of course. stockcharts.com[e,a]dbclyyay[dc][pd20,2!c9!c20!b50!c200!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Ue12,26,9!Ub14!Ud20!Ll14!Lc20!Lp14,3,3!Lah12,26,9!Lo14!Lg!Lh39,1]&pref=G

To: Warpfactor who wrote (15180)	7/17/2002 12:07:19 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Respond to of 23153

Warp: I don't like to comment on the homebuilders, but I will say that I've been selectively shorting RYL, NVR and HOV to profits during the last couple of weeks. This is not selfishness on my part, but just a desire to play these things on the downtrend with as much flexibility (eg, getting out fast) without having to rethink what I may or may not have posted on some board. They have all broken down, imho, and are headed toward (or below) book value for each within the next 6-7 months. Excellent targets for shorting. [Edit: I'm only short HOV right now, TOL didn't reach up and grab my offer this morning.] [Edit: Edit: I covered my HOV for a 1 day 8% gain.] But several of them are now approaching their 200 dma's, which should provide a test and perhaps support for a bounce, so I'm wary here. I'd be looking at their balance sheets, knowing that they are carrying some developable land on them, knowing that builders always trade back to book value or below, and then try to be nimble with them on their way down. As for the future, look at BZH's daily chart with a 200 dma and see what damage can be done. I don't have a view to shorting techs here; even the short term plays involve so much that is beyond our control that I'm only thinking about the long side. Fwiw (not much), I don't think a Naz rally to 1650-1700 is out of the question here in July. In fact, I think it's pretty likely. Kb