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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (13506)	7/17/2002 1:32:23 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

no I dont see the same extreme 1)Housing and consumer spending is booming, hardly the pessimism equivelent as people's exuberence at bubble top. 2)Housing market is a better parrellel with mortgage ads on every 5 minutes. 3)Until now the bears/bulls ratio and p/c and Vix have just reached panic levels. They need to stay here for a few months minimum to equall the 20 Vix and .50 p/c we had all of 99-2000 4)Every fund manager is still saying LTBH. When I hear people saying cash is the only route etc etc and then I will believe. I am no perma bear but I am still bearish. I am bearish for one reason. There is no way housing and retail can hold up. It is being proped by low rates, and this effect will end soon. Inm the best case we will find a nice range and remain in it for years. However there is 100% no chance that we are going to the moon anytime soon. You have contradicted yourself about BKX deathrow suport 3-4 times now. You have also done the opposite of what you did in 1998 getting cornered into a position. I understand you are already invested, but the technichals, and LT fundimentals are terrible. The economic statistics you keep throwing out are coming off such a low base that they are irrelevent because they would need to be rocketing up just to justify the valuations. INTC 72pe, Qcom 30, S 18 are in no realm bargains. You still have retailers with 20-30 pe's a complete joke in any market. I just dont see eye to eye with you on most of this.