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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam Citron who wrote (4093)	7/17/2002 1:39:40 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95420

Sam, I think Cary has attempted to insulate himself from the negative effects of a lack of diversification by only buying selected semiconductor stocks at levels far lower than many of us have done. It's not that I do not agree with you, because I do, but in a Bear Market like this one very few industries much less sectors escape the sell off. Cary, as I understand it is a long term investor, who has selected his eight stocks as the creme of the crop, in what we all would agree is an industry poised to benefit most by a cyclical recovery. Lets not beat the lack of diversification thing to death. We all invest differently. I wish I had half the track record that Cary has had and will have in the future. RtS

To: Sam Citron who wrote (4093)	7/17/2002 2:21:32 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Respond to of 95420

4 of my 8 are "so cyclical". The others are not very cyclical, but the unusual dynamics of bubble expansion and contraction have made them appear so. Diversification sounds nice, but it is not simple and monolithic. I have some diversification within the semiconductor industry, 3 sectors, and some diversification within those sectors, 4, 2, 2 companies. As I mentioned above I have very cyclical and not so cyclical. I also have cash and home equity which are the lion's share of my holdings. Portfolio theory is based on the idea that institutions manage exceptionally large pots of commingled money for many individuals who have no ability to manage money for themselves. Only large institutions have the resources to even pretend they have expertise in the many diverse areas that are required for diversification. I am very limited, relatively, in my resources, knowledge, and experience. Recently, I received literature from Ken Fisher and Associates about their money managing services. They were proud that the % growth over the past 20 years was somewhat better than my growth during the 18 months from OCT '98 to MAR '00. I did not retain all my gains, but I retained most. I played my game and I won. No dot.coms. No diversification. I bought semis and semi equips low and I sold high. This is game 2. I bought semi and semi equips low and I must sit and watch to see how much lower they go before they go higher. In OCT '98 my portfolio went 27% below cost before it jumped 6 times from the bottom level. I don't expect anything close this time, at least not the very short time interval. I do expect better than 3 times within 5 years.

To: Sam Citron who wrote (4093)	7/17/2002 2:46:12 PM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95420

<< I intend to purchase more of these and the others as conditions warrant.>> Excuse me for being the 4,000,000,000 lb. pussy cat in the room but 'conditions have warranted' for ~6 months now...a period producing quite healthy negative returns in the sector. In fact, it is the stocks telling us the 'conditions' are lagging indicators and the semiconductor industry is already in a second leg down of contraction. And since there's no reason to doubt that KLIC* remains the bellwether, yesterday's earnings report strongly suggests the 'real' recovery will not be apparent until 2003. Or beyond. =============== *I suggest investors absorb the divergence between KLIC and other equipment stocks today. I can't tell you how many times this has happened in the wake of KLIC's earnings report. And as night follows day within 4-6 weeks 95% of the rest of the sector will implode as well. Investors in the equipment sector apparently never learn: they clearly feel, once again, KLIC's problems are company specific. They will soon be shown that if they had studied parallel circumstances from the near-past, they would have understood KLIC's travails are a harbinger for everyone else. Just wait...and watch the dominoes fall.