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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (12764)	7/17/2002 3:07:37 PM
From: Wizard	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57684

sure feels like if the market were going to continue its panic, it would be crashing right now but instead, just a big rotation going on. There is value in this market and while I don't see a breakaway upside move, a lot of stocks appear to have bottomed. Nice stats coming out. SPX down >18% off its 200-day Moving average, which is the 4th highest reading of the last 20 years. After 9/11 was the worst at -21.5%. AAII bearish advisers at a 10-year high. Byron Wien's (Morgan Stanley) dividend discount model says S&P500 is 30% undervalued. ISI's says 26% Abby Cohens and Fed model saying something similar. This looks like there is going to be new leadership established while the SP100 limps along. QQQ appears to have bottomed the day the VIX broke 40 (July 11th). Better than that, software survived the VRTS call with a rally. $2B in cash generating $450mm/year and a $5B net market cap at yesterday's close. no top-line surge coming but it shows we have reached supportable valuations, even assuming slow growth. Microsoft should be OK after the bell tomorrow. Dell is doing fine despite no corporate IT upleg yet. Chuck Phillips thinks SEBL is worth $9.70 on maintenance revs and GDP growth.