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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Stephen O who wrote (1385)7/17/2002 2:57:46 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1643
 
If you are convinved that the world econmy is going to do well, and I agree with you, then copper is the place to be.

I may be the only one, but I feel very strongly that it is.

Check out this article from "The Economist" that I posted on another thread. It chronicles how the economies of Asia are doing 5 years after the "Asian crisis" occurred. If you subscribe to the publication, look at the chart. It shows that in the last 5 years the economies of Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, S. Korea and Thailand are up a combined 15% - even with the 1997 and 98 downturn. Throw in China and developing Asia is growing even faster. The IMF predicts that developing Asia will grow 5.9% this year and 6.4% next. The 25 countries included in the "developing Asia" classification made up 22.2% of world economic output compared to 21.4% for the United States. Bear in mind since these numbers are based on dollar output that the 10%+ decline we have seen in the dollar make the U.S.'s share even smaller.

In other words, these copper hungry countries, growing at twice the rate of the developed world and as large as the U.S. economy will push demand forward over the next decade.

Message 17750661



To: Stephen O who wrote (1385)7/18/2002 12:17:59 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Respond to of 1643
 
Copper (LME) inventories down again today to 874 K tonnes.

That's a decline of about 100 in the last three months. At this rate, in 9 more months, inventories will be down to a level that could produce 90 cent copper, IMO.

I'm still hoping for a 70 cent entry, but don't know if I'll wait.