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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10447)	7/17/2002 7:02:41 PM
From: SemiBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Chip equipment sales surge to follow 2002 slippage, says SEMI survey Jul 17, 2002 (12:40 PM) URL: siliconstrategies.com SAN JOSE -- In 2003 a near-30% annual increase in total semiconductor equipment sales will follow-on from 19% year-on-year drop in 2002 sales according to the mid-year consensus forecast from Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI). The consensus forecast is based on responses to a survey conducted by San Jose-based SEMI and this year's results show that the respondents expect the industry to sell $22.8 billion of chip manufacturing, testing and assembly equipment in 2002. The forecast indicates that, as the capital equipment market upturn strengthens, the market will grow 29% in 2003, to reach $29.5 billion; and 23 percent in 2004 to $36.2 billion. The survey results show equipment broken out into four categories: wafer processing, assembly and packaging, test and other. Although test equipment will enjoy a stronger recovery and avoid the predicted contraction of 2005 it does so from a small base. Test is expected to be less than $3 billion in 2002 and represent about 12% of the total equipment sales. The gyrations of the total figure are dominated by wafer processing equipment which represents about 75% of the total equipment sales. “Given the severity of business conditions in the overall economy and especially the information technology sector, it comes as no surprise that the consensus forecast shows another drop in the worldwide market for capital equipment in 2002," said Stanley Myers, president and chief executive officer of SEMI, in a statement. “However, the good news is that survey participants are positive about growth prospects for the next two years. This would seem to indicate that the downturn is bottoming out and that the industry will return to its historically high double digit growth rates in 2003 and 2004."

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (10447)	7/18/2002 9:39:49 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Jim, will check debt links, and it might take a few days I believe the biggest rise is in corp debts if I recall, corp debt load is 3-4x what it was in 1990 but GDP is only 40% higher (or so) Well clearly your recollection of the 90's is off. GDP last year was almost 80% higher than in was in 1990. $5.7 trillion to $10.2 trillion. I have already provided links showing federal debt vs. GDP is actually down and here is a link about consumer debt. federalreserve.gov It is a table of “Household debt-service payments as a percentage of disposable personal income; seasonally adjusted.” Notice that in 1980 it was about 13%. The first quarter of 2002, it was 14%. Is this the massive increase in debt service that you were referring to? Take into consideration that many people have begun using credit cards as a method of payment and the household debt burden probably hasn’t changed much in 20 years. Furthermore, if plotted against household net worth, my guess would be that it has actually fallen over the period.. My recollection of "total debt" in America is that it is approximately $30 trillion up from about $15 trillion in 1990. Clearly, since GDP was up 80% during this time, the relative burden is not the daunting mess you make it out to be. Sorry I can't provide a link on this and it's possible the numbers I remember included the SS Trust fund debt, which really isn't the same. So Jim, please understand our frustration with you when you appear here and spout "facts" without providing any links. You seem to like to throw words like "debt meltdown" out smugly and think we will take you at your word.