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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (34556)	7/17/2002 8:36:19 PM
From: BigBull	Respond to of 281500

Which cities? Tikrit and Baghdad of course, but Mosul, Irbil, and Kirkuk are all "Kurd Country" I would bet dollars to doughnuts Kurds know who the intelligence bad guys are and they wouldn't last a New York minute. Many of the northern cities can be bypassed or surrounded Once the oil fields are gone, the only thing Saddam can truly rely on are tribal alliances and his security forces in the Tikrit - Baghdad zone. Chemical isn't as big a threat as bio is in the Armageddon scenario. The US trains for chemical. Sure hope the vaccination situation is better than in the Gulf War. Imo the guerilla war scenario in the cities doesn't work because Saddam is not Ho Chi Minh and Iraq is a British creation with out the deep seated nationalist aspiration of Vietnam. It's three countries really. The biggest challenge will be the post Saddam Iraq.