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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chojiro who wrote (6158)	7/17/2002 6:21:40 PM
From: chojiro	Respond to of 6974

Siebel Was Right: Things Did Get Worse Jul 17, 2002 (TheStreet.com via COMTEX) -- Siebel Systems' dismal forecasts came true. The software titan, whose CFO warned in June that the second quarter might be even worse than a dreary first quarter, reported Wednesday a more than 40% decline in software license sales year over year and overall results that fell short of Wall Street's severely reduced estimates. The maker of customer relationship management software reported net income of $29.8 million, according to generally accepted accounting principles, or 6 cents a share in the second quarter. That compares with a net loss of $76.6 million, or 15 cents a share, in the same period a year earlier. In the first quarter, Siebel reported net income of $64.6 million, or 12 cents a share. San Mateo, Calif.-based Siebel said revenue fell 27.6% to $405.6 million from $560.2 million a year earlier, and 15.1% from $477.8 million in the previous quarter. Software license revenue fell 40.7% to $170.1 million from $286.8 million in the year-ago quarter and down 30.9% from $246 million in the first quarter. Siebel's earnings were 3 cents short of the 9 cents expected by analysts and its revenue was $31.5 million short of the $437.1 million consensus estimate gathered by Thomson Financial/First Call. In June, Siebel CFO Ken Goldman told investors at a Bear Stearns & Co. technology conference that the second quarter is "every bit as challenging, if not even somewhat tougher, than it was in the first quarter." Two months earlier, CEO Tom Siebel said the first quarter may have been the worst in the history of the software industry. Giving vague guidance for the second quarter, Siebel added that he couldn't believe business wouldn't improve in the second half of the year. Analysts lowered estimates in response to Goldman's comments, which some took essentially as a warning. In a note Tuesday, Pacific Growth Equities analyst Patrick Mason said he believes Siebel may ultimately reduce its workforce by 18% to 20% from 7,312 at the end of the first quarter. He said he believes the company already has begun identifying people to let go. Mason has an equal weight rating on Siebel and his firm hasn't done any banking with the company. Shares of Siebel rose 36 cents, or 3.2%, to close at $11.74 Wednesday. Shares fell to $11.25 in after-hours trading. By Ronna Abramson Staff Reporter (C) 1996 - 2002 TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved. -0- * end of story *

To: chojiro who wrote (6158)	7/17/2002 6:27:34 PM
From: mtnlady	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6974

Lol! Now chojiro! I've been out of the market pretty much for the past year and waiting for SEBL to come down so I don't think I've been the one "holding the bag". My "bag holding" days was the previous year! Lol! Anyway... I've always thought SEBL would be the last one to fall (and one of the first ones to rebound). Here is my prediction. NAS drops to 1000-1200 in the next month or so and SEBL is taken down to the 7-8 range with it. Then we get a rally (people will think we finally have hit the bottom). SEBL will climb back up to the 16-18 range. Perhaps even the 24-28 range. Then it's taken down again when we really do see the finally drop. NAS could see 600-800 and SEBL will - perhaps - drop to the 3-4's. I will play it as I see it unfold. p.s. Just picked up some SEBL in AH at 10.45. I will pick up more if depression drives it further. These are short term holds only.