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To: Cactus Jack who wrote (180949)	7/17/2002 8:11:51 PM
From: Giordano Bruno	Respond to of 436258

JDAM rumors... U.S. Restocking Attack Munitions May Presage Iraq Campaign 17 July 2002 A serious shortage in the number of the Pentagon's Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) bombs may have helped postpone an attack on Iraq earlier this year, the Associated Press reported July 15. But now production of the GPS-guided smart bombs is accelerating, and the Pentagon should have enough stockpiles to attack Iraq by late this year should the order come from the White House. A JDAM is no more than a package of global positioning sensors and tailfins -- costing roughly $20,000 altogether -- attached to an unguided missile. Far less expensive than a laser-guided bomb and able to operate in clouds and smoke, JDAMs went from being a novelty in the 1999 Kosovo war to a centerpiece of the Afghan campaign. More than 25 percent of the 17,000 pieces of ordnance dropped on Afghanistan were JDAMs. But the 5,000 or so JDAMs used during that campaign represented nearly half of the Pentagon's stockpile. As the Afghan war wound down, the shortage became a strong argument for delaying an attack on Iraq. Estimates vary, but a campaign against Iraq would likely require double or triple the amount of JDAMs as the Afghan war, somewhere between 10,000 to 15,000 bombs. Earlier this year American munitions-makers were producing at a rate of less than 1,000 JDAM kits a month, meaning that it would have taken until early winter to reach the bare minimum level of 10,000. This would leave precious little room for error in case more were needed and would also leave few reserves after an Iraq campaign. But support from the Pentagon is pushing JDAM manufacturers to speed production, which they appeared to do in May. JDAM makers are now pumping out nearly 1,500 bomb kits a month and are planning to expand to 2,000 per month by late this year, the Associated Press reported. These rates will give the Pentagon 10,000 JDAMS by mid-August and 15,000 by November with the promise of many more on the way. This means an attack on Iraq is possible by the end of the year, at least as far as JDAM supplies are concerned. Earlier reports in the Wall Street Journal noted a shortage of Hellfire anti-tank missiles as well, but no recent information has surfaced. It is interesting that this information was released at all. Although not on the level of a state secret, the numbers available in the AP article make it possible to get a fair idea of U.S. JDAM levels, something that many governments -- including Iraq -- would certainly find useful. This is information the U.S. government might wish to keep a tighter lid on ahead of a possible U.S. attack. Most likely, the leaks were intentional, meant to warn and intimidate the Iraqi government. stratfor.com