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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Crossy who wrote (4110)7/17/2002 10:18:44 PM
From: Return to Sender  Respond to of 95427
 
From Briefing.com: 6:06PM Siebel Systems (SEBL) 11.74 +0.36: Finally, getting to guidance... Sees Q3 sales of $355 - $400 mln, with license revenue in range of $145-180 mln... EPS of $0.05 to $0.08.. Multex consensus estimates for Q3 are/were $0.10 and $437.35 mln... Notes that Q4 will probably be like Q3, though tone suggests that management has little confidence in that forecast... Would optimistically put FY02 earnings at $0.34 v. consensus estimate of $0.43... Using middle of range, closer to $0.31.

5:57PM Siebel Systems (SEBL) 11.74 +0.36: On call, a deflated CEO, Tom Siebel, notes that conditions remain very difficult and that company sees no pick-up in short term... Sees growth constrained by soft economy.

5:50PM Siebel Systems (SEBL) 11.74 +0.36: On call, company notes that it will slash headcount by more than 1100 jobs... Goal is to bring total headcount down to 6000... In line with many estimates... Also plans to consolidate excess facilities... Will take charge in Q3 of about $225 mln.

5:48PM Extreme Networks on book/bill (EXTR) 11.42 -0.35: -- Update -- In Q&A session, an analyst says he thought company needed a 1.05 book/bill ratio to offset Sep qtr seasonal weakness; though company wouldn't give specific number, book/bill was over 1.0 and they sounded comfortable with the analyst's assumption.

5:43PM Extreme Networks doesn't provide guidance (EXTR) 11.42 -0.35: -- Update -- On conference call, company says it will not provide any specific financial guidance due to uncertain business conditions; market had been expecting slight sequential improvement in the Sep qtr to $0.04 and $115.3 mln; stock at 11.00 after hours - could be some disappointment that company failed to offer guidance.

5:39PM Symantec trades down; dilutive acquisitions (SYMC) 33.10 +0.33: -- Update -- Stock trading down to 31.50 after hours; appears to be some disappointment with the dilutive impact of today's acquisitions, as Sep qtr was guided down three cents due to this dilution, and full year guidance was only reaffirmed at $1.42 despite the nine cent upside surprise in Q1 (Jun).

5:28PM Siebel Systems (SEBL) 11.74 +0.36: -- Update -- More bad news from report: Gross margins slipped to 69.2% from 72.5% last quarter and 72.4% in year-ago period... License revenue of $170.1 mln was way below street view... General view was that market would react negatively to anything under $200 mln... Fact that license revenue now only 42% of total revenues (down from 51.5% last quarter) one reason why margins fell so much... Trend needs to be reversed or company in trouble longer-term... Conference call about to begin.

5:28PM Symantec guidance (SYMC) 33.10 +0.33: -- Update -- On conference call, company guides Sep qtr to $0.30 EPS and $300-310 mln revenues vs Multex consensus estimates of $0.33 and $292.6 mln; these numbers are about in line given three cents of dilution due to today's announced acquisitions and some added revenue; FY03 guided to $1.42 and $1.31 bln vs consensus of $1.42 and $1.23 bln, which includes costs and revenues from acquired businesses.

5:23PM IBM affirms full year guidance (IBM) 70.69 +1.68: -- Update -- On call, company says the current consensus estimate of $4.00 per share (excluding charges) this year is "about right." However, Multex consensus is $4.10, but management made it sound as if the new model of continuing ops is in line with consensus... Also, the downside in IT demand is being offset by changes made at IBM... stock at 70.99.

5:22PM Siebel Systems misses by three cents (SEBL) 11.74 +0.36: Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.06 per share, $0.03 worse than the Multex consensus of $0.09; revenues fell 27.6% year/year to $405.6 mln vs the $439.6 mln consensus.

5:17PM IBM (IBM) 70.69 +1.68: -- Update -- On call, company believes it increased market share for its DB2 software and WebSphere product. The nearest competitors for these products reported large declines... stock at 71.28.

5:13PM IBM (IBM) 70.69 +1.68: -- Update -- On call, company says the break-even point for its Microelectronics unit has been reduced by 15%... company expects significant improvement for this division in the second half... stock at 71.39

5:08PM IBM (IBM) 70.69 +1.68: -- Update -- On conference call, company lowers second half forecast for its Global Services division to "modest revenue growth" from its earlier forecast of double digit growth... Stock at 71.10.

5:06PM Advanced Micro misses earnings estimates (AMD) 9.33 -0.07: Company reports Q2 net loss of $0.54 per share, $0.09 worse than the Multex consensus; Q2 revs came in at $600 mln vs the consensus of $600 mln; note that the earnings miss comes despite two earnings warnings issued during the quarter; expects sequential flash growth which fits with the strength in SNDK's results; AMD sees Q3 sales up modestly vs the current consensus estimate for sales of $670 mln.

4:56PM SanDisk reports strong Q2 results (SNDK) 15.00 +0.30: -- Update -- Reports Q2 net of $0.13 a share on a 38% increase in revenues to $127.7 mln. If comparable to Multex estimates, results are well above the consensus of ($0.17) and $97.75 mln. SNDK attributes the return to operational profitability to surprisingly strong growth in global retail and consumer OEM sales, significantly lower overhead expenses, and the sale of $5.3 mln of NOR flash inventory that was previously written off. Excluding sale of NOR inventory, co earned roughly $0.05.

4:53PM SanDisk resumes trading at $16.50 (SNDK) 15.00 +0.30:

4:38PM Microchip meets estimates; guides Sep qtr in-line (MCHP) 26.52 +0.54: Reports Q1 (Jun) EPS of $0.15, in line with the Multex consensus; revenues were $159.7 mln vs the $159.7 mln consensus. Company sees Sep qtr sequential revenue growth of 7%, or about $170.9 mln vs the $170.5 mln consensus, with EPS of $0.16, in line with estimates.

4:13PM Extreme Networks meets estimates (EXTR) 11.42 -0.35: Reports Q4 (Jun) earnings of $0.03 per share, in line with the Multex consensus of $0.03; revenues were $113.1 mln vs the $112.5 mln consensus. No guidance in press release.

4:12PM Asyst misses by three cents (ASYT) 17.05 -0.10: Reports Q1 (Jun) loss of $0.27 per share, $0.03 worse than the Multex consensus of ($0.24); net sales for the quarter were $55.9 million vs the consensus of $54.1 million; expects Q1 net sales of approximately $70 million vs the consensus of $69.1 million.

4:11PM IBM beats First Call by penny; beats revenue estimates (IBM) 70.69 +1.68: -- Update -- Reports Q2 (Jun) net ex-charges of $0.84 vs the First Call consensus of $0.83 and Multex consensus of $0.87; revenues were $19.65 bln vs First Call at $19.5 bln and Multex at $19.0 bln.

4:03PM Celestica beats by a penny (CLS) 18.69 -0.06: Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.28 per share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus of $0.27; Q2 revs came in at $2.24 bln vs the consensus of $2.21 bln; expects Q3 revenue in the range of $2.1 - $2.4 billion, with adjusted net earnings per share of approximately $0.26-$0.33 -- consensus ests are $2.29 bln and $0.28 per share respectively.

2:57PM Cisco Systems quarter on track-- Lehman (CSCO) 14.45 +0.18: -- Update -- Lehman says that this morning's CFRA report raises no new issues, and checks indicate that CSCO's July qtr is on track to comfortably hit guidance and that the focus for the sales force now appears to be on building backlog for the Oct qtr; firm remains encouraged that CSCO is delivering on its rev and earnings numbers in a challenging environment, although rev and order growth may remain a challenge in 2H02; maintains Buy rating and $16-$18 price target range.

hi/fn (HIFN) 5.92 -0.08: After close, reports Q3 pro forma loss of $0.35, $0.11 worse than the Multex consensus; revs were $5.5 mln, in line with consensus.

RF Micro Device (RFMD) 8.15 -0.95: Shares fell 10.4% despite co. beating breakeven consensus by a penny last night and delivering Q202 guidance of $0.01-0.02 vs. consensus est of $0.02 with higher revs of $109-114 mln vs. est of $107.3 mln. Wachovia Securities downgrades to BUY from Strong Buy; anticipates investors to be sensitive to expected ASP erosion and resulting gross margin pressure. Thomas Weisel Partners recommends that an investor looking to build a position into RF component supplier invests in RFMD; believes co. remains in best position to grow beyond its peers through customer, product, and market diversification; reiterates Buy rating.

finance.yahoo.com



To: Crossy who wrote (4110)7/17/2002 11:39:28 PM
From: Gottfried  Respond to of 95427
 
Crossy, for lower valuations download the Wells Fargo report dated 7/17/02 Message 17753768

Then read the follow-up posts on the same thread. The report is controversial there, and for good reason. WF's target for AMAT is 12.[twelve]. I found two factual mistakes and posted about them.

Gottfried