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Strategies & Market Trends : Zeev's Turnips - No Politics -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (95727)	7/17/2002 10:28:18 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99280

The next 20% increase (if the increase sticks) in the price of gold could still double or triple the earnings of many of the less efficient producers. Let say that at $270 a company breaks even, and at $300 it makes a buck a share at $360 it will make roughly $3/share. Of course, as the POG goes up, smart companies dig some of their lower grades ore to level out their returns. Zeev

To: BGR who wrote (95727)	7/17/2002 10:57:45 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99280

speculating on gold company stocks based on an expected increase in POG (itself a speculation), is no different from assuming that Yahoo will increase eyeball numbers by 1000% every year, for ever. Gold stocks are in a TA driven mania, and deserve to fall. And they will, just like the internets. Trouble is, gold has little intrinsic value. In that respect, it is no different than eyeballs. I like your gold argument, especially the Yahoo comparison.<g> I put my gold stock buying plans on hold...at least until we have a decent stock market and dollar bounce. Even then they may only be a good trade if there is significant weakness in the gold stock prices near term. Even if that happens, I am beginning to think it only leads to a bit of a bounce on golds and not much more. One is probably better off looking at energy stocks (oil/gas) or other useful commodities as defensive alternatives if dollar plunges. Rethinking my future gold strategy. Not totally convinced but certainly re-evaluating.