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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Vitas who wrote (38089)	7/18/2002 5:43:50 AM
From: bearshark	Respond to of 52237

Vitas: I try to avoid analyzing every blip in a market. Unless one of the September closing lows in the INDU and TRAN are taken out on a closing basis, I consider this to be a bottoming for the second leg up in their bull market that began in September 2001. However, there still appears to be a good deal of selling that must be accommodated. Yesterday, was a good example. If this selling does not overcome the buying, we should have a decent initial move up. Then I think it will get a bit sloppy. You can go back to the two indices and see what they have to do to confirm a bull market. We are a long way from any confirmation. After this much punishment to investors and speculators, I think any upturn will be muted and managed by the funds. I am going under the impression that we are following the pattern from 1972 and will not be surprised if any rally is concentrated in large stocks or a "nifty" group of "one-decision" stocks. If the lows hold and we do have a three legged move in the above indices and it is narrow, the truly crushing intermediate bear market is ahead of us. I posted an excerpt from a book in which Roger Babson was quoted about the late 1960s bubble. I will search for it later.

To: Vitas who wrote (38089)	7/19/2002 5:24:36 AM
From: bearshark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Vitas: Yesterday's failure was set up before noon. Advancing NYSE volume never had a chance of overcoming declining volume. The poor INDU was left with its nose still above water but weighed down with lead weights. So we collapsed in the afternoon. I think the September closing lows in the INDU and TRAN are again vulnerable as a result. I continue to watch the NYSE volume to see if we have the intraday change where advancing NYSE volume catches declining volume and swamps it going away. It hasn't happened yet. If it ever does, I think its effect will be obvious.