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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monica Detwiler who wrote (85285)	7/18/2002 1:49:20 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 275872

Look at it this way. If you are a business manager - small, medium or large - do you want to buy PCs with CPUs made by the Worldcom/Quest/Lucent version of a semiconductor company. In tough times, companies look for safe havens, and AMD is no safe haven. AMD, with 4 losses in a row - and a 5'th coming up, will be seen as a weak animal, and corporations will avoid AMD like the bubonic plague. Monica, in my opinion you are exactly right. It is a very real possibility that AMD is facing it's death. Not a certainty but a very real possibility. Just what company is going to bet their future on another company that may have no future itself? Even if Hammer may be competitive, where is the money going to come from to fund Hammer2? Why design in a product from a company with a questionable existence and no money to develop a follow on? Intel is developing multiple versions of Itanium simultaneously as well as multiple versions of P4 (and P5?). AMD is losing money hand over fist and can't possibly fund similar projects. AMD's process technology has run out of gas and they have to rely on outside sources to develop their next generation process. It just looks hopeless in my view and after so many years of watching this competition it's almost sad to see what looks to be inevitable. EP

To: Monica Detwiler who wrote (85285)	7/18/2002 8:37:50 AM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Re: And did Intel post any losses during this time frame? Answer - NO. Yet Intel's assets dropped $5.5 Billion in 1.5 years....

To: Monica Detwiler who wrote (85285)	7/18/2002 7:36:18 PM
From: tejek	Respond to of 275872

In truth, AMD is going through a product transition. You remember what they are.........its like the time INTC lost share to AMD when it was changing over to the P4. And did Intel post any losses during this time frame? Answer - NO. That's true but its business model has been pushed and its margins are slipping. Compared to the INTC of the past, that's major. Soon it will be over and INTC will start losing share again. That may happen - someday - but before it happens, Intel will continue to gain market share from AMD. So then you don't think AMD is dead. In the mean time, AMD's mounting losses, huge debt service, etc., will further cripple AMD's ability to compete in the high end CPU business. Effected yes, crippled no. The Athlon has afforded AMD a cash pile that will allow it to get through the worst....maybe not in style but comfortably. Look at it this way. If you are a business manager - small, medium or large - do you want to buy PCs with CPUs made by the Worldcom/Quest/Lucent version of a semiconductor company. That was your father's AMD. The current one bares little relationship to the WCOM's of the world........unless you know something about AMD's accounting that I don't know. In tough times, companies look for safe havens, and AMD is no safe haven. AMD, with 4 losses in a row - and a 5'th coming up, will be seen as a weak animal, and corporations will avoid AMD like the bubonic plague. I don't know what other companies are thinking but AMD's stock does not reflect the supposition you make above. In fact, its held up fairly well in spite of all its troubles. It could be that everyone is expecting good things from the Hammer. It wouldn't surprise me. ted