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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chojiro who wrote (6185)	7/18/2002 7:46:25 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 6974

chojiro, there were 51 deals gone off in the $1-3M range vs. 63 in Q4(do I have my historical Qs correct? my notes are a bit scribbled) From my Q4 notes: Siebel closed 52 deals over $1 million, up from 44 in Q3. The CFO characterized the $1 - $3 million range as Siebel's "sweet spot." There were eight transactions in excess of $5 million, down from 10 in Q3. --Mike Buckley

To: chojiro who wrote (6185)	7/18/2002 1:39:49 PM
From: Lizzie Tudor	Respond to of 6974

What if the CSCOs, EXTRs you mention slow down further? Well - I have been assuming all along that the slump in networking was a cyclical decline resulting from excess capacity that will eventually get worked through- based on the fact that the worlds internet population is doubling every year off a larger and larger base. In addition to more users I also believe applications will start to suck more bandwidth- some applications like Napster's clones can't be legislated away and are only temporarily stunted. Anyway if you don't buy into that then csco,extr,jnpr etc. could well continue their declines. But I believe they will start a slow appreciation process here especially cisco. And what happens to the $2B cash if profits begin to dwindle? And what if SEBL has to report a loss(pro forma!) in the near future? And as far as valuation, what if options were required to be reported as expenses? If you go back and account for the options granted(dilution) SEBL has been losing massive EPS. Did I fail to mention Sebl is cash flow positive? Thats the difference between sebl and ciena (another stock I have that briefly traded for cash value). Ciena didn't sit at cash value and they bleed money! Why would sebl, a cash generating machine, trade for cash. The only way sebl cuts into their cash reserves is the software biz takes another huge haircut from here... maybe an additional 30% decline or something. BTW one house upgraded i2 from sell to hold today. Supply chain is much worse off than CRM- i2 hit bottom about 2 weeks ago and has been steadily climbing since. I suspect the same for sebl, expectations are way too low. L