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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: nspolar who wrote (15897)	7/18/2002 3:54:50 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Fwiw, I might follow up by saying any counts and strategies should also take the dollar and other relevant market dynamics into consideration. For counts and strategies to be worth a crap various scenarios should "reinforce" as opposed to the opposite. Looking at the dollar: stockcharts.com[l,a]daclyiay[dc][pb50!b200][vc60][iUb12!Li14,3]&pref=G I can do a count on that to indicate we should be at or very near the end of a correction. I'm not a candlestick expert, but don't the last two look promising, for a little reversal in progress? Now look at this: quotes.ino.com Looks like lot of wiggles but could be the start of a little up. The Nikkei was up well this evening, and the currency futs look promising for a little dollar up tomorrow. However, if what you see and put together goes to heck tomorrow, just start over. Keep working it over until you get it right, or more right. In the meantime get laughed at. There are a lot of fuzzy links here, but there are obvious ones to continually observe. The dollar is such an important actor in this at the moment. Just can't say enough about that. Re the dollar don't count ole Al out quite yet. After reading McCulley's stuff I actually have a little more respect for Al. It is obvious he knows what is going on, but he has some real limits to contend with, namely people who do people like things. In any event he and the system won't just roll over. I've also read some interesting cycle studies. According to one what separates this upcoming market wipeout (assumed) from the '29 episode is that this one will be an impulse down, or a down in a LT down. The '29 one was actually a corrective down in a LT up. That is something scary to think about. Now think about the psychology here for a moment. Correctives can be brutal, but would typically be short or occur over a much quicker time frame than a long impulse sequence. A corrective down in an up usually occurs for technical reasons or a momentary lapse of confidence. On the other hand here we sit, after recently reaching a bubble top. We are invincible. So what happens? Do things just roll over and go down without a fight? Not likely. The 'Big' down we are in is long and brutal. It takes a lot longer to break down all that confidence and invincibility, than for example than it does during a corrective situation. And during the process the relapses are ups. Maybe I'm just full of crap and rambling, but just thinking about all this it seems to make some sense. All the cycle analyses and good predictions I have read seem to have one thing in common, and that is they have been on a little quicker time scale than what Mr. Market is. Why? Well, maybe it has to do with the fact that due to the nature of timing here no one in the business has any experience with the type of situation we are in. Their predictions are based on prior experience, which isn't exactly applicable. Another factor is that maybe prior experiences didn't have Al and the boys, meddling to the extent they do now. To sum it up I'm not necessarily expecting an immediate huge market dump. I'm being reasonably cautions and patient, as I think this thing that we're going through is going to string out longer timewise than most have it pegged. Note the word 'reasonably' - you don't make anything without playing with that risk/reward business. You go in with some when that is in your favor.

To: nspolar who wrote (15897)	7/18/2002 10:18:32 AM
From: chris714	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Maybe it was just a typo...but I am trying to understand your talk of this being a " corrective down..to be followed by an IT corrective up" how can a corrective wave follow a corrective? While I am a relative newcomer to wave theory....I would count the current down as corrective....to be followed by an impulsive up. Hey, very interesting post regarding the possible differences between this down and 1929...I had not thought of that aspect....Sounds like some of the stuff I used to read regarding K wave ....and Heinz etc....I miss Heinz I am still trying to figure out my entry points for GLG and NEM. GLG has some definite support at 8.25......but I have a feeling that it may fall thru...TO Where-- that is the question. Chris