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To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37689)	7/18/2002 11:45:07 AM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 69835

From Briefing.com: Nasdaq Composite Intraday -- Technical -- Choppy activity at modestly lower levels has dominated thus far today. Index has worked off the low with a sustained penetration of intraday resistance at 1385 opening the door for at least some follow through gains. Next minor ceilings are at 1392 and the 1401/1404 area. More important resistance is between 1417 (20 day ema) and 1423 (yesterday's high). Supports are at 1375, 1370 (Wednesday's low) and the 1360/1357 area. 10:36AM Notable that two Semi Equipment stocks on 52-wk low list today : Teradyne (TER 17.44 -1.04) is by far the more important of the two, as it's deterioration may be viewed as an indicator of future action in the sector. The $3 bln mkt-cap name has taken out its one-yr low of $18.30 established Sept 27, 2001. The other name, Electroglas (EGLS 7.04 -0.81), is hitting a new low for the second time in less than a week. 10:02AM Sector Watch: Semiconductor : After a minor push into positive territory the sector index (SOX at 374) has rotated lower led by TER -5.3%, AMD -4.9% (earnings miss), MU -3.2% and AMAT -2.9%. The semi HOLDRs (SMH 30.17) is facing intraday resistance at 30.45/30.55. Without a push through this zone it is expected to remain vulnerable. 9:36AM Cymer may see higher shipments, ASPs-- Fulcrum (CYMI) 31.53: Fulcrum in a pre-open note says that ASML mgmt made a number of comments during their conference call that firm believes are positive for CYMI (ASML is the #1 customer of CYMI); as a result of these comments, firm expects higher unit shipments and richer avg selling prices for CYMI in the coming quarters. 9:24AM Cisco Systems: cautious comments from Bear Stearns (CSCO) 14.80: Bear Stearns Ripple Effect believe Cisco is likely to guide once again for flat sequential revenues in Q1, which may be slightly disappointing given the valuation and mgmt's expectations for a 5% increase in orders; firm says they "would not chase CSCO", and believes the stock is more attractive around $12. 8:50AM ATI Tech gets pos comments, Nvidia estimates cut at Pru (ATYT) 7.81: Prudential says that ATYT's Radeon 9700 announcement is a coup on a number of fronts, including superior performance and more importantly production timing, as the Radeon 9700 will ship in mid-August-- months ahead of NVDA's competing product; says Radeon 9700 marks ATYT's comeback and established co as a long-term contender to 3D graphics leadership. In addition, firm cuts Hold-rated NVDA's FY03 est to $1.50 from $1.75 and FY04 to $1.40 from $1.90 in order to reflect a worst-case scenario. 8:30AM Novellus estimates cut at Soundview (NVLS) 30.97: Soundview says that although they are comfortable with their Q2 est, NVLS could see orders flatten out in the upcoming quarters; also, firm believes that some share shift to AMAT could be occurring in dielectric CVD; cuts 2002 rev/EPS est to $909.7 mln/$0.43 from $924.7 mln/$0.50 and 2003 to $1.3 bln/$1.24 from $1.3 bln/$1.52 (both below consensus). 7:41AM IBM: details on Bear Stearns downgrade (IBM) 70.69: -- Update -- Bear Stearns downgrades to NEUTRAL from Attractive (7:10) due to concerns about the shortfall in services signings and the implication of a challenging 2H02 for the biz, a weak 2H02 EPS outlook pushing positive YoY earnings comparisons out in to 2003, and due to the lack of a compelling valuation case; cuts Q3 est to $0.96 from $1.02 and Q4 to $1.41 from $1.46. 7:20AM Nokia beats by a penny; trims handset forecast (NOK) 14.12: Reports Q2 net of Eur$0.19 per share, $0.01 better than consensus, vs yr ago earnings of $0.12 a share. Company trims 2002 handset forecast to 400 mln from as much as 420 mln. Puts 2nd-half sales growth at 3-10%. 7:13AM EMC Corp beats by a penny (EMC) 8.63: Reports Q2 loss of $0.01 per share, $0.01 better than the Multex consensus. Revenues fell 31.3% to $1.39 bln vs the $1.38 bln consensus. "Most large corporations continue to delay major IT projects, generally limiting their purchases to deployments that provide a rapid return on their investment." EMC did not provide guidance. 7:10AM IBM downgraded by Bear Stearns to Neutral : finance.yahoo.com

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37689)	7/18/2002 12:35:10 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 69835

Nokia's hits key targets for Q2 Finnish mobile phone maker says still tough By Emily Church, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 7:33 AM ET July 18, 2002 LONDON (CBS.MW) - Shares of Nokia drifted lower in volatile trading on Thursday after the No. 1 mobile handset maker hit its key targets for profits growth in the second quarter but said conditions remain tough in the industry. The company said it now sees 2002 global handset unit sales at around 400 million, which is at the bottom end of its earlier estimated range. Rival Motorola (MOT: news, chart, profile) this week lowered its expectation for 2002 sales by 20 million to 400 million as well. The figure implies 5 percent growth for the industry in 2002. "Twelve percent growth in handset volumes (in the second quarter for Nokia) is a clear indication that we are moving toward moderate growth, starting in the second quarter and following in the second half," said Nokia Chief Executive Jorma Ollila in a televised interview. "But clearly there is overcapacity in the industry and many players are not in good shape financially... overall five percent growth cannot sustain such a number of players," he said. He expects the replacement market to represent over 50 percent of new sales this year. Nokia largely stuck to expectations for sales growth in the second half of the year between 3-and-10 percent - largely in line with its earlier target. The figure implies a decline of 2 percent to a one percent rise in 2002 sales. Nokia further reaffirmed its expectation to top its market share in handsets from its 37 percent share in 2001.The company gained around 1.5 percentage points in share in the quarter. "We believe that this was driven by aggressive pricing and estimate Average selling prices fell 9.5 percent sequentially," Credit Suisse First Boston said. However, its target for third quarter earnings per share in a range of euro 15 cents to 17 cents missed some analyst expectations. It also said it may have to take a charge against earnings in the third quarter to write off part of a loan stemming from vendor financing of 752 million euros to Germany's MobilCom mobile operator. "It is alarming that Nokia has guided down third quarter earnings per share due to expected lower third quarter Nokia Mobile Phone margins," Swedish broker Enskilda said. "One would expect new product launches to boost the average selling price but the higher initial component cost is probably offsetting higher average selling prices." [Harry: Does this put the squeeze on RFMD? NOK accounts for a large part of RFMD sales. It explains some of the weakness after RFMD CC.] Nokia widened its target range for earnings in 2002 to 79-84 euro cents. Mobile sales up, network slump Nokia's net sales in the quarter declined 6 percent to euro 6.935 billion; earnings per share came in at 19 euro cents, within the company's 18-20 cent target, and one euro cent ahead of the average estimate from the analysts. Net profit rose 9 percent to 905 million euros. Mobile phone sales rose 1 percent over the same quarter a year ago to 5.398 billion euros on a pro froma basis and operating profit on the mobile phones rose 22 percent to 1.17 billion. Margins rose to 21.7 percent from 17.9 percent. Nokia said it expected to hold margins of around 20 per cent this year. Sales in Nokia Networks declined 22 percent to 1.474 billion euros. The company attributed the slump in networks to "continued lower-than-expected 2G investments in China and Europe, partially offset by steady growth in the U.S." [Harry: This should indicate weak business for NT and LU also. Wireless were the only segments of their businesses growing. Alternative it could be market share loss, but then ASP and GM would be down. They have to give up something to win the business.] Ollila said the company was sticking to expectations that 10 percent margins in the networks division can be maintained for the rest of the year. "It depends on a good balance between reasonable 2-2.5G sales as well as some start of revenue recognition of our deliveries of 3G," he said. He affirmed the company expects to begin recognizing revenue from sales of 3G gear in the third quarter - a key event for some analysts for Nokia to meet its sales targets for the year. Nokia (NOK: news, chart, profile) on June 11 told investors to expect earnings per share for the second quarter of euro 18-20 cents. Nokia shares (SE:000053994: news, chart, profile) have outperformed European telecom stocks over the past year, but are down 29 percent in the last 12 months and down 24 percent relative to the broader measure of European stocks, excluding U.K. stocks. U.S. rival Motorola (MOT: news, chart, profile) and chipmaker Intel Corp. (INTC: news, chart, profile) earlier this week stuck to quarter-over-quarter sales growth targets for the second half of the year, sending technology stocks higher on both sides of the Atlantic. Swedish rival Ericsson (ERICY: news, chart, profile) (SE:000010865: news, chart, profile) is slated to post its second quarter results on Friday. The 22 percent decline in sales at Nokia's network division served as an indicator for the company. Shares were flat in mid-afternoon trading in Europe. Nokia, Alcatel (ALA: news, chart, profile) and Ericsson's carrier customers have been cutting back on spending on new technology in part because of heavy debt burdens. On June 20, Nokia cut its year-on-year sales outlook in the second half of the year to "growth of up to 10 percent" from "at least 15 percent" previously. The company said at the time that it remained comfortable with its target for full-year diluted earnings per share of euro 83 cents. See full story on outlook from Nokia in June Emily Church is London bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch.com.

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (37689)	7/18/2002 8:09:34 PM
From: j g cordes	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 69835

Harry, get with it my friend.. you asked for the max-pain numbers yesterday the 17th.. now you're saying they're only relevant for last week! If you feel that way, then why did you ask for them? I don't put much weight into max pain idea as I haven't seen it useful except on options expiration day with OEX or when there's very little volatility or trend in the market generally for some stocks. Watching the trading over the last few days.. there's more programs kicking in with greater volume.. the market's being played more by institutions. Jim