Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (4127)	7/18/2002 11:55:49 AM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95415

the world is being turned on its head [by technology] By technology in general or do you have a particular technology in mind? Because technology has been transforming the world for quite a long time, well before the invention of the printing press, the telescope, pasteurization, or gunpowder. So what is new this time around and is there anything at all useful in the history of technology to use as a roadmap to see where we are going? I already know that technology is responsible for raising living standards all over the world. And I know that it has rewarded those investors who do their homework diligently and are skillful and lucky enough to choose the few winners and avoid the many losers. (Most reasonable people have concluded that the odds of doing so are similar to that of winning the lottery. Another argument for portfolio diversification, perhaps the precise focused way you are doing so.) It is wonderful to hear about your passion for technology and your excitement about being fully invested at bargain prices. I believe you have said that you anticipate tripling your money in these stocks over the next four years. I believe that is the right kind of timeframe to consider when we anticipate the next wave. [I am avoiding the use of the word cycle advisedly here, because I believe we first have to digest the excesses of the last series of cycles and that it may take some time just as it did for AMAT from 1974 to 1977. Not to think necessarily of Kondratieff waves, but who knows?] I don't know if you are familiar with the work of Alfred Chandler caslon.com.au but you may want to have a look. This prolific octogenarian business historian has recently turned his gaze upon the consumer electronic and computer industries amazon.com and he brings an immense understanding of business to the task. I haven't read his latest works myself, but if they are anything like their predecessors they will become classics. Cheers, Sam