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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TimF who wrote (148520)	7/18/2002 11:15:43 AM
From: TimF	Respond to of 1578965

New Jobless Claims at 17-Month Low By JEANNINE AVERSA 07/18/2002 07:37:51 EST WASHINGTON (AP) - New claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply last week, hitting their lowest level in 17 months, an encouraging sign amid a sluggish job market. For the work week ending July 13, new claims for jobless benefits dropped by a seasonally adjusted 28,000 to 379,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That pushed claims to their lowest point since Feb. 17, 2001. The decline, larger than many analysts expected, came after claims shot up by 21,000 the week before. Thomas Stengle, a statistican with the Labor Department, cautioned against reading too much into this week's decline or last week's increase. That's because the claims figures tend to bounce around a lot this time of year, he said. Auto plants temporarily shut down around this time each year to retool for new models. Those shutdowns often cause temporary layoffs in related industries, economists said. Some textile plants temporarily close in July, producing a similar effect, they said. Difficulties adjusting for these seasonal factors can result in wide swings in the claims figures. The more stable four-week moving average of new claims, which smoothes out weekly fluctations, edged down to 391,000 last week, the lowest level since the beginning of March. The four-week moving average has been below the 400,000 mark - a level associated with weakness in the labor market - for five straight weeks, a sign that the pace of layoffs is stabilizing. But even if companies reduce the speed at which they lay off workers, the nation's unemployment rate will rise if companies are slow to hire employees back. Thursday's report showed that the number of laid-off workers continuing to draw jobless benefits rose to 3.6 million for the work week ending July 6, the latest period for which the data is available. That suggests that not a lot of hiring is going on. Companies whose profits and revenues took a hit during the slump have been worried about the recovery's staying power and have been wary of making big commitments in hiring and in capital investment. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and his Fed colleagues believe the nation's unemployment rate - now at 5.9 percent - could edge up to a high of 6 percent later this year. But some private economists predict the jobless rate could move as high as 6.5 percent by the fall. Greenspan told Congress this week that the economy is on the path to healthy growth, but that it will continue to feel the lingering effects of last year's recession and fallout from a sour stock market and a crisis of confidence in corporate America stemming from a wave of accounting scandals. Against this backdrop, growing numbers of economists believe the Fed may decide to leave short-term interest rates - now at 40-year lows - unchanged for the rest of the year. siliconinvestor.com