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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chomolungma who wrote (10501)	7/18/2002 3:03:23 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

have you thought about your customers? you are too quick to dismiss "The decline will increase demand and boost earnings." instead... the decline will lower price to foreigners but the Asian continent is on the edge of depression the condition of your foreign Asian customers is in question this addresses my economist forecast issue they assume all things remain equal that is their undoing Europeans will be able to benefit from lower US chip prices the USA has 3-4 times as much imported production as domestic in the chip business, more domestic production than other technology businesses so Europe will be buying what kind of chips? PC's? probably not, new Wintel versions have little new networking? not with severe excess equipment capacity telecom? let's not waste our time wireless? perhaps some, but Nokia and Ericcson dominate you are pushing on a string, ChumoLung who needs urgently these new chips? there is an excess out there of everything in techs, chips didnt you hear Intel canceled their new chipfab? pushed it out into the future sounds like they have excesses also discounts will now be doubled down not likely to help much as we used to say in my last couple MktgResearch jobs, KNOW YOUR CUSTOMER yours are sick, worldwide and in a declining dollar envmt, you fail to address the economic impact of your customers their profit margins just got whacked by falling dollar they export more to US shores than they import so their entire economies (more so Asian than European) will suffer mightily from depressed earnings so US continues to deteriorate with deflation killing profits and pushing out all capex while foreign economies suffer from lost profits on exports this is the prescription for worldwide recession if rising USdollar fostered growth worldwide, doesnt it make sense that declining US$ fosters worldwide recession ??? / jim