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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (10505)	7/18/2002 10:40:10 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

the US$ will fly past the mean check the federal debt levels and current return to deficits they will possibly grow in a huge way if a slower economy arises, deficits will soar when combined with a wartime economy check the trade debt levels, now near 5% of GDP would you believe Greenspan's own office research indicates historical patterns of a minimum 25% currency devaluation upon hitting the recognized critical 5% level ? I could find the long article if I tried, would take time you forget that currency trends dont go to the mean and stay there in 1993 the dollar went down to 85 yen and a dmark level that was 25% lower than euro inception the dollar rose fully 50% versus yen and dmark since 1990 currency swings in decade-long trends almost no exception since 1972 currency trends are extremely powerful with huge momentum annual currency trading takes $22 trillion in movement they dont just revert to the mean they correct the enormous imbalances created by the imprudent rises that occurred such is the price of unbacked currency, which becomes hotmoney by 1987 the USA had fully run its course with horrendous inflation the actual inflation rate turned down in the mid-1980's but the currency market punished the USdollar until 1994 it overshot until the problem was fully dealt with it always overshoots until the nation is fixed and rendered suitable for foreign investment how long before the USA is fixed for foreign investment? I say between 2-4 years is laughably too short a time more like twice that at least most numbnut economist say 2-4 months how much would the dollar need to devalue for the trade gap to disappear? it barely existed in the entire 1970's now we have new imbalances that are even more enormous we shipped out the great majority of our mfg base we have thus fostered a trade gap that is staggering as the dollar rose, all things Asian become silly cheap that Fuller guy likes to talk in %age terms well, the trade gap has risen in large %age terms dont you think we deserve to have a large correction in the dollar in order to bring back some of our mfg base? to reduce our dependence on foreign capital so much in financing our world police state? in financing our world financial accident insurance state? the greatest risk to our national security, in my opinion, is the trend of foreign held USTreasury debt it is now up to 44% of the staggering $6000 billion since 1990, here are the growth levels of our debts from Puplava's article on "Debt Valley" consumer & mortgage - 83% to 105% of personal income corporate - 48% to 58% of GDP no, I expect the currency trend to far overshoot last night on CNBC was a Merill Lynch currency broker he said all his European colleagues expect at least another 10-15% dollar decline versus the euro and if our federal debt and trade debt dont respond favorably, maybe worse currency corrects so as to fix the problem what will it take to fix the problem? the facts of life as I understand them in the currency world calls for currency devaluation until the problem begins to get fixed, then to go farther as far as the market allows because it is so damned profitable futures typically carry 30:1 leverage the USdollar is now (according to traders) the victim of a new dollar carry trade, sent into hyperspeed via futures contract leverage borrow TBill shorterm money at 1.75% buy longterm EuroBonds paying out 5% vicious but totally ironic in the 1990's we did the same with Japanese money borrow JGBonds at 1%, buy USTBonds at 6-8% vicious but totally profitable in the late 1990's we did the same with gold lease it at 1%, sell it, buy TBonds at 5-7% vicious but it supports the dollar by killing gold find a precedent of a major currency that returned to the mean find one in the last 20 years I know of none instead, we have 10-yr trends that go end to end the USA will likely be shocked to watch the abandonment of the dollar over the next 12 months not me for those who dont believe my figures, do you own research invest some time in an education my numbers are very close from pure mammory / jim