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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (3474)	7/18/2002 8:19:16 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 306849

I am in Los Angeles County, so I'm well acquainted with seasonal cycles and the perpetual happy talk from the Los Angeles Times. Four years ago all of the available homes in most areas of L A County were already sold by this week. Now at the third week of July we have an abundance of homes for sale and a glut of condominiums for sale. Inventories continue to build, and the number of homes on the market for longer than 180 days is building in a startling manner. Of course the portion of L A County I'm familiar with is Beverly Hills and adjacent areas. Its possible homes are much more desirable in remote low-cost regions of L A County. Outer regions like Palmdale might be experiencing the home shortage the LA Times is prattling on about and I would never know about it. For all I know Tiajuana might be the focus of a new real estate boom.

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (3474)	7/18/2002 8:36:00 PM
From: Elroy Jetson	Respond to of 306849

I'll tell you another thing I'm seeing a lot of in the past month... people accepting offers 15% or so below their asking price. A sure sign of a dysfunctional market. Last year the typical sale went out in over-bids. In more normal markets homes have sold within 5% of their asking price. We've experienced a big jump in asking prices during the last couple of months accompanied by: a sharp decline in transaction volume; and sales at steep under-bids. This marked the top of the market in 1989. Time will tell if these same conditions indicate the top in 2002 as well.